We have just started ramping up practical use of imitation learning from human demonstrations in humanoids. A bigger development is that one or two projects are working on training foundational vision action language models based on large video datasets.
I think before the end of summer general purpose physical knowledge and capabilities will start to be demonstrated by one or more humanoid AI or robotics groups.
Maybe 18 months at the absolute latest.
I'm guessing by next year or 2028 there will be services where you can order a robot to come cook and or clean for you. By 2029 it should be quite affordable to get a humanoid on a short term rental.
Do we have any standard benchmarks for humanoids to do domestic tasks?
That seems like quite an extrapolation and an extraordinary statement. This is a single task, in a lab setting. What your describing are extremely open-ended tasks in people’s homes.
Look at recent developments/announcements involving novel increasingly generalizable learning capabilities from projects like 1X/Neo, Figure 03, Skild AI. Also see open published work like MimicDroid, HDMI, GenMimic, Humanoid-Union Dataset, RoboMirror, Being-H0
You're not really trying to see the advances in things like the data flywheel. If you were you would see that those demos represent real movement towards generality.
Hey guys I rooted my humanoid and it killed my mom when I disabled the "slow limb motion" mode. It just wacked her in the head as she walked in the kitchen and she's not moving what do I do??
You should @linustechtips and hope he picks it up, then you have a good chance of getting a voucher for the funeral and getting a shout out in the manufacturers next demo when they talk about their new safety features.
" Do we have any standard benchmarks for humanoids to do domestic tasks?" The answer is yes. Steve Wozniak proposed the Coffee Test. See https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MowergwQR5Y
It's actually very clever. Despite the apparent simplicity, no current model could pass it.
Re your forecasts, I think they are optimistic in terms of timing but not ridiculously so.
I think coffee test for robots will be similar to Turing Test for LLMs, which was quietly achieved and forgotten somewhere between gpt-3.5 and gpt-4. Real tests are tasks like cooking or plumbing - I expect that to come in 2-3 years.
The "AGI" (-ish) moment for AI was shoving Common Crawl into a transformer.
What's the animal intelligence (physical int.) equivalent of that? I don't think such a dataset exists? (e.g. NVidia is trying to compensate for that with simulated worlds, i.e. synthetic data)
I know labs are throwing an insane amount of money wherever they can to try and build datasets for this - at claru.ai we're working with a few and they are even grabbing all the players like labelbox, toloka etc to throw armies at getting bespoke data for these needs. Most of the time its get data then figure out what to do with it after...the unfortunate strategy from what I'm seeing but data is a moat in their eyes
It is interesting to watch. The movements of the robot are robot-like. I mean, wtf, there were no robot playing tennis before, but I have an idea how a robot playing tennis would be like, and this video confirms my expectations. Sharp, unsure movements, a lot of hesitation, ...
Movies pictured robots like this long before this become possible, but how did producers guessed it?
Or maybe movies rendered different kinds of robots, but this video bring into my memory only those, that look like this. A kind of confirmation bias?
Also, I can't help noticing that the guy(s) playing with the robot are doing their utmost to make it look good: playing the ball as gently as possible (so it has time to react and doesn't have to exert too much force to return it), aiming for places the robot can comfortably get to etc.
I agree that the movements look quite robotic (though not as much as you might expect), but I don't think any movies have depicted robots moving like that. A much more common depiction is moving only a single joint at a time.
> Sharp, unsure movements, a lot of hesitation, ...
I like these particular descriptors. Another I would add is holding poses unnaturally still. While waiting for the ball, the robot holds its racket extremely consistently relative to its body even while sharply turning.
Why can some Temu humanoid robot do this sort of impressive, coordinated, high-speed thing, but Tesla Optimus completely sucks at everything unless they’re moving at 0.02m/s (and even then they’re not great)? Like, train this thing on the latent space of folding my clothes out of the dryer and I will send you my money.
This is so interesting. Especially since it's kinda weird to train a robot to mimicking human play. I wonder what a perfect robot what actually behave like.
It wouldn't need to split-step to activate muscles, the footwork would probably be minimal. I imagine a lot of different unusual looking swings to confuse human players, while still making perfect contact. It could make really late drop shots or even rotate the racket at the last moment for crazy angles.
So this is all pretty much theoretical, but very tightly woven strictly bounded protocols to be brought to production-- perhaps an accelerated alternative to perceive a much sooner ETA of 18months...
Maybe its moreso about reaching out to the right people about this "white paper" worthy research.
AFAIK, billions of dollars are poured into tennis mechanics at the highest level.
Introduce this to the right group of people, I truly can see this funded to play Janik Sinner where he would pay as a service to play against his worst nightmare.
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I think before the end of summer general purpose physical knowledge and capabilities will start to be demonstrated by one or more humanoid AI or robotics groups.
Maybe 18 months at the absolute latest.
I'm guessing by next year or 2028 there will be services where you can order a robot to come cook and or clean for you. By 2029 it should be quite affordable to get a humanoid on a short term rental.
Do we have any standard benchmarks for humanoids to do domestic tasks?
What is informing these timelines?
Figure 03:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e-31-KBBuXM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZUTzuhkDG3w
1X Neo:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lS_z60kjVEk
Skild AI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YRmjBdKKLsc (Learning by Watching Human Videos)
It's actually very clever. Despite the apparent simplicity, no current model could pass it.
Re your forecasts, I think they are optimistic in terms of timing but not ridiculously so.
What's the animal intelligence (physical int.) equivalent of that? I don't think such a dataset exists? (e.g. NVidia is trying to compensate for that with simulated worlds, i.e. synthetic data)
>I'm guessing by next year or 2028 there will be services where you can order a robot to come cook and or clean for you.
Bullshit.
Movies pictured robots like this long before this become possible, but how did producers guessed it?
Or maybe movies rendered different kinds of robots, but this video bring into my memory only those, that look like this. A kind of confirmation bias?
> Sharp, unsure movements, a lot of hesitation, ...
I like these particular descriptors. Another I would add is holding poses unnaturally still. While waiting for the ball, the robot holds its racket extremely consistently relative to its body even while sharply turning.
The robot and ball pose is estimated by high speed mocap cameras, and is fed to the policy.
I imagine estimating that with onboard cameras - how humans do it - is much harder.
Almost all of closed loop robotics is a state estimation problem. Control is “solved” if you can estimate state well enough.
It wouldn't need to split-step to activate muscles, the footwork would probably be minimal. I imagine a lot of different unusual looking swings to confuse human players, while still making perfect contact. It could make really late drop shots or even rotate the racket at the last moment for crazy angles.
Would love to watch this.
Maybe its moreso about reaching out to the right people about this "white paper" worthy research.
AFAIK, billions of dollars are poured into tennis mechanics at the highest level.
Introduce this to the right group of people, I truly can see this funded to play Janik Sinner where he would pay as a service to play against his worst nightmare.