Good analysis, although it would have been better with some charts on eg the crack spread. The death (or murder) of expertise on social media, most recently accelerated by AI commenting bots, is doing a lot to obscure market signals for the general public while allowing insiders to make a killing, both figuratively and literally. I anticipate deep and long-lasting consequences once a critical mass of the public grasps the fact that they're staring down years of economic austerity that was imposed on them by fiat.
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"According to several officials, the advice Mr. Trump is getting from the prince is to keep hitting the Iranians hard..."[1]
[1] https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/15/us/politics/trump-stark-c...