My take: He wants "pauses" because he wants to resupply the strike group and/or wait for the Marine unit to transfer. I have my suspicions Iran isn't gonna fall for this trick.
And Brent futures are starting to climb up again fast.
Trump's post is either him freaking out of a Black Monday and/or losing military command, or it can be interpreted as market manipulation. But I don't think he is much in control anymore.
The Dow Jones is the only think that keeps him remotely in-check, so he tries to say things that will calm the markets, but as Matt Yglesias says, Oil is a physical commodity, not a meme-stock, either it flows or it doesn't and we'll find out soon.
Trump just said that a former president praised him in private for his war of aggression in Iran. All living former presidents confirmed they've had no communication with him.
I'm hoping that this is part of a specific plan - Reza Pahlavi has made statements about his trying to influence Trump to not strike Iran's energy sector. Given that those shortly followed Trump's own threats to do so, it seems reasonable to think that the whole interaction could be designed to make Pahlavi look good in front of the Iranian public by apparently obtaining concessions from the US via diplomacy.
If that is the case, I'd expect some kind of official recognition of Pahlavi, or at least some kind of unofficial indication that the US would consider him to be an acceptable leader.
I'm just a dude in the southern US, so I obviously don't have first-hand knowledge. The best I can do is speak with my friends and colleagues with ties to Iran; those conversations have led me to believe that Pahlavi is the best option to lead a transitional government.
From what I gather it's not that the Iranian people want to return to a Shah, but that Reza has been consistent in stating a desire to lead Iran to a more democratic system, and he has enough trust and goodwill with the people of Iran to make it work.
The outcome I'm hoping for is for the IRGC and Basij to be desolved or effectively powerless, with Reza Pahlavi leading a transitional government and keeping the promises that he's made thus far to liberalize. I want to see him go down in history not as the man who restored the Shah of Iran, but as the person who refused to accept personal authority and instead entrusted it to the people.
I do my best to speak about my own political views rarely here, mostly when they're important context to what I'm trying to convey.
> if it turns out the Pahlavi can bring about an Iran that makes most of its people reasonably happy and free, I'm all for it.
Yeah, that's where I am. I'm hoping it works out that way because that's the best path toward a free and happy Iran, not recommending it as a course of action :)
The amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli with its marines will be arriving on station shortly [0]. The Iranian regime have been preparing for a fight with the Great Satan since it came to power.
It will be a holy war for the Iranian regime so they will not back down. So unless Trump/US does back down it's safe to assume things are going to get far worse.
The "productive" talks are, of course, a lie. Trump just said that a former president praised him in private for his war of aggression in Iran. All living former presidents confirmed they've had no communication with him.
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My take: He wants "pauses" because he wants to resupply the strike group and/or wait for the Marine unit to transfer. I have my suspicions Iran isn't gonna fall for this trick.
But, Trump being Trump, he'll probably do a suckerpunch attack today on the deadline.
Meanwhile, multiple Iranian sources have denied any talks taking place. At least with the US.
And Brent futures are starting to climb up again fast.
Trump's post is either him freaking out of a Black Monday and/or losing military command, or it can be interpreted as market manipulation. But I don't think he is much in control anymore.
If that is the case, I'd expect some kind of official recognition of Pahlavi, or at least some kind of unofficial indication that the US would consider him to be an acceptable leader.
I hear that Pahlavi is less bad than his father, but surely somebody in Iran has a claim to leadership without being an obvious American puppet.
From what I gather it's not that the Iranian people want to return to a Shah, but that Reza has been consistent in stating a desire to lead Iran to a more democratic system, and he has enough trust and goodwill with the people of Iran to make it work.
The outcome I'm hoping for is for the IRGC and Basij to be desolved or effectively powerless, with Reza Pahlavi leading a transitional government and keeping the promises that he's made thus far to liberalize. I want to see him go down in history not as the man who restored the Shah of Iran, but as the person who refused to accept personal authority and instead entrusted it to the people.
That said... if it turns out the Pahlavi can bring about an Iran that makes most of its people reasonably happy and free, I'm all for it.
> if it turns out the Pahlavi can bring about an Iran that makes most of its people reasonably happy and free, I'm all for it.
Yeah, that's where I am. I'm hoping it works out that way because that's the best path toward a free and happy Iran, not recommending it as a course of action :)
It will be a holy war for the Iranian regime so they will not back down. So unless Trump/US does back down it's safe to assume things are going to get far worse.
[0] https://news.usni.org/2026/03/18/3-ship-tripoli-arg-31st-meu...
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CL%3DF/
https://pasteboard.co/IblUvbclykFf.png
There are Crypto perpetual futures markets open all weekend but those are much smaller so it's unlikely they could make millions there.
It’s as if he’s just options trading.
I wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest if he attacked those power plants this evening.