China is mass-producing hypersonic missiles for $99,000 (kdwalmsley.substack.com)

by zdw 163 comments 192 points
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163 comments

[−] magicalist 51d ago
This is blogspam based on a tweet of the company's promo video[1] in November and some speculation by a guy on Chinese state TV[2]. As far as I can find there's no evidence since then that these have entered production, mass or otherwise. It was doubted at the time they could hit these costs in production, and there hasn't been any news since.

[1] https://xcancel.com/CNSpaceflight/status/1993158707056984359

[2] https://archive.is/VLO7U

[−] exabrial 51d ago
Real or not, this is probably the future. Lockheed execs want combat to be a distant exchange of multi-million dollar missiles. As shown in Ukraine, people actually fighting for their lives will wreck a $300million weapon with a slingshot.
[−] janalsncm 51d ago
This is what people should keep in mind when the statistic about US defense spending being higher than the next N nations combined or whatever it is now. If I buy a 30k Prius, and you spend 300k on a different car,

1) that doesn’t mean you can drive 10x as fast and

2) maybe you just bought an overpriced Prius, perhaps a gold plated one

This is a more general problem in politics, where the overall budget being allocated is reported rather than the practical result.

[−] indubioprorubik 51d ago
Pakistan invests in chinese air -defenses- gets steamrolled by india. Iran buys chinese air-defenses- gets steamrolled by Israel and the Us. Russia claimed the s400 was all the rage- and its going nowhere in ukraine. If propaganda claims where a currency, could you buy anything with all this?
[−] beloch 51d ago
Whether these claims are real or not, they do illustrate one of the crazy things about technological progress. Capabilities that are difficult for states to develop eventually become something corporations can easily implement, and from there they become affordable for private citizens, first to buy, and then to DIY.

Two obvious and concerning corollaries are that state capabilities eventually become easy to obtain for non-state terrorist groups and, later on, unbalanced individuals. Consider what ISIS would have done with these, and then think about what the unabomber would have done.

I'd fully expect this particular company to face multiple hurdles in actually exporting any of these missiles. They might not be able to actually deliver at the quoted price-point. China might not permit it, due to the political blow-back. Israel and the U.S. obviously have an interest in making sure none of these missiles wind up in Iranian hands. The execs of this company are probably feeling a bit like a target has been painted on their heads right now.

However, controlling technology like this is ultimately a game of whack-a-mole. If this company fails, gets regulated, decapitated, sucked up by the Chinese military, etc., ten other companies will pop up all over the place that can produce the same thing or better, cheaper. There's also a supply chain of components behind this company that can now export critical parts to those building their own. We've simply reached (or are about to reach) the point where missiles of this sort can be made very cheaply.

Here's hoping missile defence gets better and cheaper fast.

[−] maxglute 51d ago
In terms of credibility, this is the same group / private company that claimed the ramject rotating detonation engine last year. They're the only private PRC aerospace company that works on hypersonic technology, they've been around for 10+ years, have national little giant designation, IIRC the founder was chief designer at CALT/CASC, most of the R&D teams seems seasoned. That said I cannot tell if they're PRC's very budget Anduril, their PR is pretty flash (at least relative to PRC standards) but they have a lot of ambitious vapor ware tier projects / announcements in prior years. It doesn't seem like they ever really had the $$$ to do anything grandiose, but they got like 200m rmb in investment right before YKJ-1000 announcement... Considering PRC acquisition of 1m drones + 1m loitering munitions, maybe sign pivot to budget hypersonic viable business model than commercial space.

Other related relevant info, there was interview according (allegedly) to source within company the the 100k USD / 700k rmb unit price is apparently calculated by outsiders, so it is not reliable. But the more interesting tidbit is the goal of "manufacturing rockets like manufacturing cars" is to drive down costs of missiles to 1/10th price of "traditional" costs, with cited costs of "often in 10s of millions" of rmb per unit. Often as in not always, hinting lower end, i.e. 10-40 million rmb, and I assume in same S/IRBM tier, suggesting those tier missiles are currently in 1m-5m usd range. Likely not higher, i.e. 50-100 rmb range, otherwise linguistically, language would round unit up to 100m (亿).

[−] GuB-42 51d ago
$99,000 sounds like an ad for a car. How much is the deluxe warhead option? Is it available under leasing? (insurance may be expensive)

I have a hard time believing that the price is anything but marketing. Statistically, $99,000 is just a number that is as likely as any other number, but still...

[−] ranger_danger 51d ago
If they're that cheap they can probably afford to cry wolf with them. Get people used to seeing unarmed missles flown in to random places, where the possible damage doesn't justify trying to shoot them down, then suddenly start putting explosives onboard.
[−] mpweiher 51d ago
I see your $99,000 missile and I raise you a $10 intercept.

Time for those laser-defenses to come up to speed.

[−] yanhangyhy 51d ago
https://www.reddit.com/r/aviation/comments/1p64kki/reporter_...

It reminds me of a funny piece of news. A noodle manufacturer in China, for some reason—maybe to make more money—secretly produced quite a number of small aircraft and even managed to sell many of them.

[−] londons_explore 51d ago
The future of almost all industries is smart software (costing billions to make, but infinitely copyable) and cheap hardware.
[−] givemeethekeys 51d ago
Perhaps this will be a larger peace between hypersonic powers than the one we've had between nuclear powers.
[−] sailfast 51d ago
Do they hit their targets? Eventually with enough of them it’s not super important but… it does matter a bit.
[−] srean 51d ago
What seems to be the problem with their S300 clones? Anyone knows ? Easy to jam I suppose.
[−] joe_mamba 51d ago
Damn, can you imagine how quickly Aliexpress orders are gonna arrive now?
[−] FpUser 51d ago

>"A Chinese company is in production of a hypersonic missile, with a sticker price comparable to that of a luxury sedan"

Well they've perfected manufacturing at scale. I see no surprise here.

[−] carabiner 51d ago
Previously: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41305736

No idea why a story about a YC company was flagged.

[−] mikrotikker 51d ago
Will this be like the time that Saudi Arabia bought a Chinese laser defense system to stop drone attacks on its oil infra only for it to be incredible ineffective?
[−] vfclists 51d ago
What is its weight, what is its payload and what is the cost of the fuel needed to propel it to hypersonic speeds?
[−] blipvert 51d ago
If it’s not five nines then I’m not interested.
[−] dmvjs 50d ago
$99,000 is the new 99 cents
[−] 0x4e 51d ago
Amazing! Yet another life destroying invention. What could go wrong?
[−] belter 51d ago
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[−] theturtle 51d ago
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[−] creantum 51d ago
If they’re half as good as the robot I saw today in china slapping that kid id get a few
[−] lejalv 51d ago
[flagged]
[−] LorenPechtel 51d ago
Hypersonic has a big weakness--good luck building a seeker that can function hypersonic. And most of that flight will be effectively outside the atmosphere--no midcourse adjustments. If you're standing still that's irrelevant, but if you can move that's a big issue. And how many Chinesium rocket motors will explode on ignition, blowing up whatever is doing the shooting.
[−] ck2 51d ago
when China take Taiwan there's not a single thing the world is going to be able to do about it

they use thousands of fishing boats to practice blockades

they are building massive oil reserves and getting most of population into electric vehicles

let's just hope they wait to next decade and not like 2028

[−] code_biologist 51d ago
Chat, is this real? I've seen this guy pop up on youtube. I assume he's a Chinese state mouthpiece as he's a westerner in the mainland with a very pro-China spin (substack recommended the other posts below), but I'm curious how strong the factual basis for this reporting is.

China's factories are in another world - Mar 23, 2025

Chinese factories build fire trucks for under $400,000 in six weeks. In the US, it's $2 million in 4 years - Apr 19, 2025

Iran is blowing up $500 million radars. China's export bans mean they are gone forever. - Mar 16, 2026