This study doesn't correct for baseline exponential decay due to inflation, to better highlight the meaningful variations. By comparing based on 1914 dollars it also causes old variations to be relatively more extreme and newer inflationary events to look less extreme. You must compare apples to apples.
Finally the events are quite cherry-picked. It is a conclusion looking for a result, when the statistical reason for choosing those 4 events simply isn't evident when you look at the data itself. There is no mathematical rule you could apply to your dataset that would distinctly highlight those 4 periods.
Yes, a log chart would be better. That said, apples cannot be compared in this case; probably very few of us would choose to go back to 1914. A Tesla model Y would cost $1,680 in 1901 dollars, but would have been worth millions of those same 1901 dollars. Or nothing, depending on how much charging tech you could fit in the frunk. Many quality of life items are not covered by PPP (or money supply or other measures) adjustments.
Why would anyone pay millions of dollars - that would be the equivalent to a billionaire's entire fortune - for a Tesla Model Y in 1901?
You'd have nowhere to charge it. Electricity would be more expensive than gas even if you did.
You'd benefit almost nothing from the technology. There's no internet. Not much of it would work. And it wouldn't really help move you forward technologically, as it's just too advanced.
You're basically critiquing a chart showing how purchasing power is decayed due to inflation because it isn't adjusted for "baseline" inflation. That doesn't make sense.
And yes, earlier variations are more impactful because compounding.
I will say that a better representation would be a logarithm of the inverse. The problem with doing it this way is that later changes look very small. $1.00 to $.99 is the same y-axis delta as $0.05 to $0.04 but the latter is very different.
Also we’re looking at periods that involve dramatically different monetary policy (gold standard before WWII, Bretton Woods from 1944-1976, then the current regime).
This supports my hunch that the current Iran war creates a lethal trifecta that could potentially cause a dollar collapse. 1. Massive military overspend. 2. Petrodollar squeeze (Strait of Hormuz). 3. Allies pulling out: Europe and the Gulf diversifying both their investments and defense purchases.
#1 creates oversupply of dollars and #2 and #3 lower demand. This study supports the idea that wars can indeed destroy purchasing power.
Note that most of this period falls before the modern inflation target was established in 1995. In the past 30 years we've had 75% accumulated annual inflation (aka prices have increased be a factor of exp(0.75) = 2.1) of which 16% (aka 21% of the total) took place during an inflation excursion (which lasted 2.5 years aka 8% of the total time period).
If anything the data points at "inflation targeting works and is producing slow and steady inflation" rather than "inflation comes in concentrated bursts".
Whoever wrote this article seems to think a strong dollar is fundamental to a strong economy. But, notice where it is on this timeline the only prolonged strengthening of the dollar that shows up. Yep, you've got it, the depth of the great depression. And, notice where the WWII and postwar weakening of the dollar led -- that's right, to in many ways the most prosperous economy the world has ever seen.
Because we try to figure out how things like "strengthening" and "weakening" of the dollar fit in, and we actually have policies much more intelligent than, weaking of the dollar! Collapse is imminent!
1950-1985 and 1985-now are pretty steady. Decreased inflation volatility over time.
I think your chart shows the "that inflation slowly erodes purchasing power over time." That doesn't mean there aren't periods of change - if you study economic history at all you know about the Great Depression and stagflation - but for ~50 years it's been pretty well managed.
This article over and over describes inflation as a tax or destruction, without backing those claims up. It would be a much stronger article if it focused on the main point rather than having it interspersed with the author's personal opinion of changes in the denominator of a fraction.
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Finally the events are quite cherry-picked. It is a conclusion looking for a result, when the statistical reason for choosing those 4 events simply isn't evident when you look at the data itself. There is no mathematical rule you could apply to your dataset that would distinctly highlight those 4 periods.
You'd have nowhere to charge it. Electricity would be more expensive than gas even if you did.
You'd benefit almost nothing from the technology. There's no internet. Not much of it would work. And it wouldn't really help move you forward technologically, as it's just too advanced.
https://www.officialdata.org/us/inflation/1800?amount=1
Doing a spot check, this means $1 in in 1913 is equivalent to roughly $32.83 today.
And yes, earlier variations are more impactful because compounding.
I will say that a better representation would be a logarithm of the inverse. The problem with doing it this way is that later changes look very small. $1.00 to $.99 is the same y-axis delta as $0.05 to $0.04 but the latter is very different.
#1 creates oversupply of dollars and #2 and #3 lower demand. This study supports the idea that wars can indeed destroy purchasing power.
If anything the data points at "inflation targeting works and is producing slow and steady inflation" rather than "inflation comes in concentrated bursts".
Because we try to figure out how things like "strengthening" and "weakening" of the dollar fit in, and we actually have policies much more intelligent than, weaking of the dollar! Collapse is imminent!
I think your chart shows the "that inflation slowly erodes purchasing power over time." That doesn't mean there aren't periods of change - if you study economic history at all you know about the Great Depression and stagflation - but for ~50 years it's been pretty well managed.
> Instead, $100 in 1914 is worth $3.05 today.
Doesn't that mean $3.05 in 1914 us worth $100 today?