In the Dwarkesh podcast with Semi-Analysis's Dylan Patel they forecast the phone market will shrink by 50% this year because of RAM prices:
But that’s the high end of the market, which is only a few hundred million phones a year. Apple sells two or three hundred million phones annually. The bulk of the market is mid-range and low-end. It used to be that 1.4 billion smartphones were sold a year. Now we’re at about 1.1 billion. Our projections are that we might drop to 800 million this year, and down to 500 or 600 million next year.
We look at data points out of China from some of our analysts in Asia, Singapore, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. They’ve been tracking this, and they see Xiaomi and Oppo cutting low-end and mid-range smartphone volumes by half.
Yes, it’s only a $150 BOM increase on a $1,000 iPhone where Apple has some larger margin. But for smaller phones, the percentage of the BOM that goes to memory and storage is much larger. And the margins are lower, so there’s less capacity to even eat the margins. And they have also generally tended not to do long-term agreements on memory.
Why this is a big deal is that if smartphone volumes halve, that drop will happen in the low and mid-range, not the high end.
This is an extinction event for the low-cost cell phone companies. How are they going to survive if they can't sell their $100 phones profitably for 2 years? I think many of the low-end companies will simply sell their allocations of RAM and close up shop.
Smartphones are widely available on the used goods market though, perhaps even more so than second-hand SBCs or old PCs. The "low and mid range" can be filled by the former high end.
When it becomes clear that the insanely expensive AI data center orders are not going to be filled, we can expect a huge reversal in the price of RAM and GPUs. There are 241 GW of orders on the pipeline but only a third of that is under construction and of that third, even less is being quickly finished and brought online, It’s estimated that just 3GW came online last year.
I would not call any Apple phone even mid-range, and certainly not low-end?
This coming from an android user, that recently bought iphones for my daughters. Paying 600$ for not even top-of-the-line phones does not scream low-end to me.
Its going to be interesting, when big the big AI bubble directly attacks via pricing the government by preventing the sale of surveillance devices. So the bubble will pop- not because it can not sustain, but because its existence is adversarial to government demands for surveillance.
Just checked my Amazon history, and in late 2020 I bought two Raspberry Pi 4s with 4GB memory for ¥6,500 JPY (~$62 USD) each. At the time, they were in somewhat short supply and I payed a little over the $55 list price from a reseller on Amazon.
It looks like the current price on Amazon for the Raspberry Pi 4 4GB is ¥18,800 (~$117 at current rates), which is indeed expensive AF. Oddly, the Raspberry Pi 5 4GB is priced about the same, at ¥18,950 (~$119).
Considering inflation and the speed increases over the 4, the Raspberry Pi 5 price doesn't seem too unreasonable to me. But having the price go up well over ¥10,000 definitely takes it out of the realm of impulse buy and more into something I would only buy if I had a specific and urgent need. So I can definitely see this killing off a good chunk of the hobbyist market.
As it stands, my two older Pis are currently sitting unused in a closet, so I would definitely try to use those before buying anything new.
My big regret at the moment is not buying a 4TB M.2 SSD last year when prices were dipping down below ¥30,000. Now they have more than doubled to ¥65,000 or more. I had one in my cart, but decided not to buy it with the rationale that "well I still don't need the space right now, and the price per TB will probably come down even further by the time I do need it". That is, after all, the way that prices on computer component have worked for most of my life.
Helium supply issues are only going to make this worse.
I feel like for the first time in our lives we might have seen peak technology for the next few years. Everyone is going to have to make do instead of depending on ever increasing performance.
If I spent a bajillion dollars on massive data centres I would be delighted if personal computing were also crippled for a while. It would allow me to further own your ability to do compute tasks and to help kill the concept of doing it yourself for a while.
The Raspberry Pi 4B 2GB is $55 on CanaKit, PiShop, Seeed Studio, and MicroCenter.
The Raspberry Pi 3B 1GB is $35 on CanaKit, Adafruit. The 3B+ is on PiShop for $40.
The Raspberry Pi 3A+ 512MB is $25 on CanaKit, Adafruit, PiShop, SparkFun.
The Raspberry Pi Zero 2 W is $16.35 on CanaKit, $17.25 on PiShop.
We are unavoidably headed at financial collapse, authoritarianism, and potentially the collapse of Western civilization. And ya'll are worried that you won't have 8GB of RAM in an embedded GPIO computer for your hobby? Maybe it's time to make the ultimate sacrifice: use less RAM.
There are ups and downs in the prices of components. Often people forget that during COVID prices were high for SBCs because of supply chain issues. Video cards just were not available in the UK and afterwards (every supplier had long lead times) and are still relatively expensive (at least there are now lower priced options). Raspberry Pis you couldn't get hold of and many people (Jeff Included) was using a website checking for availability which was non-existent for anything other than low end models.
I remember 15-20 years ago when hard drive prices went up through the roof because there was a flood in Thailand and it too years for prices to come down.
There is going to be supply chain issues due to the current Geopolitical situation (Helium comes out of the Gulf and that is need in chip manufacture) is also going to affect the price of components.
Eventually in a few years (as the article states) the situation will change. It just sucks at the moment.
TBH I am more worried about my ability to fill up the tank on my car as both Petrol and Diesel is unavailable locally. I can make do with whatever computer equipment I have.
Well this brings back initiative to stop throwing RAM at the problem and start optimising the code. Would like to see what smart people can do when there are money saved from buying more RAM.
The title should say: "Collusion of large corporations promoting LLMs with RAM manufacturers is killing the hobbyist SBC market (and bankrupting anybody trying to get a PC or laptop)".
Because we all know that DRAM prices have spiked since production is going to those infernal chatbot training data centers. Same as a lot of the electricity in some parts of the world, BTW.
Living in Korea where Samsung and SK Hynix are headquartered, the DRAM pricing situation is interesting from the supply side too. Both companies have been aggressively shifting capacity toward HBM for AI/datacenter use because the margins are 3-5x higher than commodity DDR5. The hobbyist SBC market is essentially collateral damage of the AI boom — manufacturers are rationally choosing to serve the more profitable customer.
Unfortunately I don't see this reversing until HBM demand plateaus or new fabs come online, which is 2-3 years out at minimum.
It's good that openAI is failing to meet its obligations on hardware, but given what we know about the DRAM industry, i suspect drastically higher prices will be the permanent new normal, just like most everything else.
I've been having fun getting Linux 7.0 running on my Milk-V Duo S, it's still available super cheap (though tariffs make buying single quantities expensive) so i stocked up on Duo boards. I guess I'm hoping for an upside where there's more interest in cheaper overstock boards from 2022+
am I crazy for thinking that the 16GB Pi 5 is just there to absorb money from people who purchase the most expensive version of things? Like really nobody needs that much RAM on a Pi?
I remember my company buying RAM expansion boards for our PCs back in 1989 so we could run OS/2. The 4MB boards (MB! Not GB.) cost around $2000 at the time.
Like everyone, I love getting tons of RAM or SSD storage on the cheap; but we have a ways to go before we reach the 'unaffordable' level.
The high cost of high end DRAM (4GB+) cost skyrocketing has caused some interesting shifts:
1. Shifting Hobbyist Focus: Because hobbyists typically prefer parts under the $100 mark (so they don't "fret over breaking them"), the community is shifting away from modern, high-powered SBCs. Instead, people are moving toward:
2. Older SBC models (like the Pi 3 or 4 with lower RAM).
3. Microcontrollers (like the RP2040) which remain cheap. So Used hardware and "repurposing" old tech is retro trending again.
IMO, perhaps there will be push to make software/firmware more RAM efficient with AI assisted coding?
I know this is a pipe dream (govt’s of the world working together to benefit their citizens instead of blowing some other country’s citizens up!) but if we aren’t gonna regulate AI collectively to ensure we are developing it responsibly, the least we can do is ensure AI is given bottom billing when it comes to all the resources it’s sucking up. Energy, components, engineers, construction, etc.
My preference is responsible AI development which prevents it from turning into an arms race but that’s clearly not on the cards, especially with current leadership.
The extreme DRAM market has had an unexpected side effect of triggering a lot of panic buying. I know several people who delayed PC upgrades for years but then panic bought new systems in this market. The trigger was seeing all of the "It's only going to get worse" and "This is the end of personal computing" headlines.
They're already regretting spending so much now that prices have started to tick downward.
I keep telling everyone: If you don't have a pressing need to buy right now, please wait 6 months and check again.
Got my RPi 5 16GB quite a while ago for around $160 and already thought that was expensive... It’s still powerful enough for almost everything I throw at it, honestly a bit overkill in most scenarios.
With prices steadily going up, for me it's starting to feel more sensible to repurpose the RAM sticks I've collected from old PC builds / laptops and just throw together small amd64 boxes instead of buying more RPis.
Unless you're really using the GPIO pins or other weird I/O, I really fail to see the purpose in having an 8GB or 16GB RAM Raspberry Pi (at a much higher price than it used to be) as a desktop workstation with a GUI on it.
The idea of putting sixteen gigs of RAM in a raspberry pi is nuts. The legit thing you want to use a raspberry pi (or a competitor) for as an embedded headless thing with no KB/mouse/display attached should run fine in 2GB of RAM or less, assuming an ordinary debian-based OS environment.
I would much rather have a used, ex-corporate/ex-lease, small form factor or ultra small form factor x86-64 desktop PC (Dell, HP, Lenovo, whatever) with 16GB of RAM in it and an SSD on a SATA3 or NVME interface. Whatever is the "best" SFF that you can buy via huge eBay used equipment dealers on any given month.
Despite being many years old, whatever you can buy on ebay for 200 bucks (at least before the recent RAM fiasco) with some recent-ish quad core core i5/i7 or Ryzen in it will run circles around a raspberry pi 5.
Bought a couple of 32gb SBCs before this all hit the fan. And also built a SSD NAS before the wave hit.
So timed that all pretty great. What worries me is my desktop is up for a full new buy somewhere around early '28. That could be a train wreck depending on how taiwan situation goes
this whole saga is having ripple effects even in the second hand market. in 2020-2022 there was a glut of those 1L mini pcs on ebay and other resellers which were WAY better value than the RPi4 at the time which was in short supply due to COVID. these mini PCs were pretty affordable and could be upgraded with extra RAM, new SSD/NVMe drive etc to make perfectly good little home servers. I still have mine which has been running for a few years now, Intel 6th Gen CPU, Lenovo thinkcentre.
nowadays the price of these 2nd hand mini PCs has shot up, and even if you do get a chance to get one, upgrading it with more RAM is gonna be painful
Yep. I just bought a Pi CM5 for my son, for his ClockworkPi uConsole. CAD $200 for the 8GB module. I bought a whole Pi5 16GB not long ago for under CAD $200.
I will not be buying any more SBC's at this price point. I wonder if Raspberry PI will survive.
People hate AI. This will make them hate it even more. Yet somehow the market has convinced/forced us to use their products even though we might not want to.
A recent nationwide poll[1] shows AI has a poorer approval rating than ICE — ICE! — probably due to their overlords being "those" SV types. Everyday AI features are being shoved down our throats. I can't even choose to not install Gemini related apps on my Android when I select "which apps to install" when booting a new phone.
But people are a weird bunch. They largely don't buy products aligning with their values. No one is jumping up and down for Graphene phones even if they had amazing privacy first software. People buy 6mi/gal hummers and iPhones for fashion, brand, money, convenience/function. The pain threshold of all bad effects still is not high enough to quit their products in a meaningful way. Values and privacy are way down in their list. I wish people would not buy/install AI related features by big tech and be more discerning, but that is likely a pipe dream.
A 2GB RAM (and no EMMC) Raspberry Pi 5 in Canada is $90. Around $150 is where you can get used N100 Mini PCs with a proper SSD, and at least 8GB of RAM. It’s crazy.
Funnily enough the consumer impact of DRAM etc. costs came up in an unrelated interview I was doing at Kubecon last week. She also made the observation that a lot of these big companies are buying components to keep in reserve for data centers that haven’t even been built yet.
Bought these Patriod SSDs recently, they are cheap but they are DRAMless apparently, I'm using them to replace the HDDs from 17 year old hardware so figure it's not terrible plus the read/write speed is still high
Most software uses 10x more memory than is necessary to solve the problem. In an ideal world, developers would stop building bloatware if their customers can't afford the DRAM.
It's terrible. Fake money is fueling the exhaustion of real resources in search of questionable outcomes ("AGI"). Imagine if all of these money were invested in curing cancer.
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But that’s the high end of the market, which is only a few hundred million phones a year. Apple sells two or three hundred million phones annually. The bulk of the market is mid-range and low-end. It used to be that 1.4 billion smartphones were sold a year. Now we’re at about 1.1 billion. Our projections are that we might drop to 800 million this year, and down to 500 or 600 million next year.
We look at data points out of China from some of our analysts in Asia, Singapore, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. They’ve been tracking this, and they see Xiaomi and Oppo cutting low-end and mid-range smartphone volumes by half.
Yes, it’s only a $150 BOM increase on a $1,000 iPhone where Apple has some larger margin. But for smaller phones, the percentage of the BOM that goes to memory and storage is much larger. And the margins are lower, so there’s less capacity to even eat the margins. And they have also generally tended not to do long-term agreements on memory.
Why this is a big deal is that if smartphone volumes halve, that drop will happen in the low and mid-range, not the high end.
https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-ai-industry-is-lying-to-you/
This coming from an android user, that recently bought iphones for my daughters. Paying 600$ for not even top-of-the-line phones does not scream low-end to me.
It looks like the current price on Amazon for the Raspberry Pi 4 4GB is ¥18,800 (~$117 at current rates), which is indeed expensive AF. Oddly, the Raspberry Pi 5 4GB is priced about the same, at ¥18,950 (~$119).
Considering inflation and the speed increases over the 4, the Raspberry Pi 5 price doesn't seem too unreasonable to me. But having the price go up well over ¥10,000 definitely takes it out of the realm of impulse buy and more into something I would only buy if I had a specific and urgent need. So I can definitely see this killing off a good chunk of the hobbyist market.
As it stands, my two older Pis are currently sitting unused in a closet, so I would definitely try to use those before buying anything new.
My big regret at the moment is not buying a 4TB M.2 SSD last year when prices were dipping down below ¥30,000. Now they have more than doubled to ¥65,000 or more. I had one in my cart, but decided not to buy it with the rationale that "well I still don't need the space right now, and the price per TB will probably come down even further by the time I do need it". That is, after all, the way that prices on computer component have worked for most of my life.
Meanwhile, a refurbished corporate laptop with 16GB RAM and a 512GB SSD can be yours for $199 [1]
I'm sure there will still be people who want the Pi 5 but at these prices, I ain't one of them.
[1] https://www.ebay.com/itm/327079631563
I feel like for the first time in our lives we might have seen peak technology for the next few years. Everyone is going to have to make do instead of depending on ever increasing performance.
The Raspberry Pi 3B 1GB is $35 on CanaKit, Adafruit. The 3B+ is on PiShop for $40.
The Raspberry Pi 3A+ 512MB is $25 on CanaKit, Adafruit, PiShop, SparkFun.
The Raspberry Pi Zero 2 W is $16.35 on CanaKit, $17.25 on PiShop.
We are unavoidably headed at financial collapse, authoritarianism, and potentially the collapse of Western civilization. And ya'll are worried that you won't have 8GB of RAM in an embedded GPIO computer for your hobby? Maybe it's time to make the ultimate sacrifice: use less RAM.
I remember 15-20 years ago when hard drive prices went up through the roof because there was a flood in Thailand and it too years for prices to come down.
There is going to be supply chain issues due to the current Geopolitical situation (Helium comes out of the Gulf and that is need in chip manufacture) is also going to affect the price of components.
Eventually in a few years (as the article states) the situation will change. It just sucks at the moment.
TBH I am more worried about my ability to fill up the tank on my car as both Petrol and Diesel is unavailable locally. I can make do with whatever computer equipment I have.
We just had a vendor uplift our quote 50% per unit for some machines because of a mix of memory + supply chain issues.
or to teach that again
Because we all know that DRAM prices have spiked since production is going to those infernal chatbot training data centers. Same as a lot of the electricity in some parts of the world, BTW.
Unfortunately I don't see this reversing until HBM demand plateaus or new fabs come online, which is 2-3 years out at minimum.
I've been having fun getting Linux 7.0 running on my Milk-V Duo S, it's still available super cheap (though tariffs make buying single quantities expensive) so i stocked up on Duo boards. I guess I'm hoping for an upside where there's more interest in cheaper overstock boards from 2022+
Maybe the company will extend the availability of the Model 2b for a few more years and release versions with less RAM (<= 500 MB)?
I remember my company buying RAM expansion boards for our PCs back in 1989 so we could run OS/2. The 4MB boards (MB! Not GB.) cost around $2000 at the time.
Like everyone, I love getting tons of RAM or SSD storage on the cheap; but we have a ways to go before we reach the 'unaffordable' level.
1. Shifting Hobbyist Focus: Because hobbyists typically prefer parts under the $100 mark (so they don't "fret over breaking them"), the community is shifting away from modern, high-powered SBCs. Instead, people are moving toward:
2. Older SBC models (like the Pi 3 or 4 with lower RAM).
3. Microcontrollers (like the RP2040) which remain cheap. So Used hardware and "repurposing" old tech is retro trending again.
IMO, perhaps there will be push to make software/firmware more RAM efficient with AI assisted coding?
My preference is responsible AI development which prevents it from turning into an arms race but that’s clearly not on the cards, especially with current leadership.
They're already regretting spending so much now that prices have started to tick downward.
I keep telling everyone: If you don't have a pressing need to buy right now, please wait 6 months and check again.
With prices steadily going up, for me it's starting to feel more sensible to repurpose the RAM sticks I've collected from old PC builds / laptops and just throw together small amd64 boxes instead of buying more RPis.
The idea of putting sixteen gigs of RAM in a raspberry pi is nuts. The legit thing you want to use a raspberry pi (or a competitor) for as an embedded headless thing with no KB/mouse/display attached should run fine in 2GB of RAM or less, assuming an ordinary debian-based OS environment.
I would much rather have a used, ex-corporate/ex-lease, small form factor or ultra small form factor x86-64 desktop PC (Dell, HP, Lenovo, whatever) with 16GB of RAM in it and an SSD on a SATA3 or NVME interface. Whatever is the "best" SFF that you can buy via huge eBay used equipment dealers on any given month.
Despite being many years old, whatever you can buy on ebay for 200 bucks (at least before the recent RAM fiasco) with some recent-ish quad core core i5/i7 or Ryzen in it will run circles around a raspberry pi 5.
So timed that all pretty great. What worries me is my desktop is up for a full new buy somewhere around early '28. That could be a train wreck depending on how taiwan situation goes
nowadays the price of these 2nd hand mini PCs has shot up, and even if you do get a chance to get one, upgrading it with more RAM is gonna be painful
I will not be buying any more SBC's at this price point. I wonder if Raspberry PI will survive.
A recent nationwide poll[1] shows AI has a poorer approval rating than ICE — ICE! — probably due to their overlords being "those" SV types. Everyday AI features are being shoved down our throats. I can't even choose to not install Gemini related apps on my Android when I select "which apps to install" when booting a new phone.
But people are a weird bunch. They largely don't buy products aligning with their values. No one is jumping up and down for Graphene phones even if they had amazing privacy first software. People buy 6mi/gal hummers and iPhones for fashion, brand, money, convenience/function. The pain threshold of all bad effects still is not high enough to quit their products in a meaningful way. Values and privacy are way down in their list. I wish people would not buy/install AI related features by big tech and be more discerning, but that is likely a pipe dream.
[1] https://pos.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/260072-NBC-March-...