During the entire gulf war (Iraq, 1990-91), only two F-15s were shot down via surface-to-air engagement. At the time, Baghdad was known to have the highest density of SAM protection out of any city in the world.
An F-15 being shot down in Iran after weeks of strategic bombing of their anti-air defense systems is not a good sign.
> A second Air Force combat plane crashed in the Persian Gulf region on Friday, and the lone pilot was safely rescued, according to two U.S. officials who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss operational matters. The A-10 Warthog attack plane went down near the Strait of Hormuz about the same time that an Air Force F-15E was shot down over Iran, the officials said. In that incident, one crew member was rescued and search-and-rescue operators are looking for the second airman. Officials provided scant details about the A-10 crash, including how and where it happened.
there's some additional osint rumor mill that a blackhawk helicopter involved in rescue operations was also shot down but claims that crew been recovered
In the first Iraq war, the KARI system in Iraq, which was built by Thompson-CSF, had its specifications leaked and the US obtained access to back doors and codes that allowed it to bypass and/or disable much of that system. You need to remember that the US and much of the West had friendly relations with Iraq and provided some infrastructure assistance and military support because Iraq invaded Iran.
No such analogous advantage exists in Iran, which is a much larger country, with better air defenses, and no western contractors ready to provide back doors into systems.
You can't compare time, you need to compare sorties. There were only 5900 F15 sorties during the gulf war. It's not clear how many of the 8000 combat sorties sorties flown so far in the Iran war are with F15s, but it's almost certainly several thousand. Overall during the gulf war coalition forces suffered 52 fixed wing aircraft lost in combat over approximately 116,000 combat sorties.
Given Iran ought to have far better SAM systems than Iraq 35 years ago, this comparison doesn't seem in any way alarming.
For a more direct comparison, in the first 5 weeks of the invasion of Ukraine, Russia flew approximately 7000 combat sorties and 22 fixed wing aircraft were shot down.
It seems like the Iraqis were relatively poor operators of their systems. A few days ago I was reading about the Nato bombing of yugoslavia on wikipedia and it had the following entry:
"Yugoslav air defences were much fewer than what Iraq had deployed during the Gulf War – an estimated 16 SA-3 and 25 SA-6 surface-to-air missile systems, plus numerous anti-aircraft artillery (AAA) and man-portable air defence systems (MANPADS) – but unlike the Iraqis they took steps to preserve their assets. Prior to the conflict's start Yugoslav SAMs were preemptively dispersed away from their garrisons and practiced emission control to decrease NATO's ability to locate them."
So their SAMs likely just got stealth bombed / bombed from a distance.
> An F-15 being shot down in Iran after weeks of strategic bombing of their anti-air defense systems is not a good sign.
Why? We don't know exactly what happened but its easy to imagine that Iran held some anti-air systems in reserve for this phase of the war. They aren't trying to defend a target, their goal was likely to stay hidden and wait for an opportunity. They could keep the radar off and use a passive sensor network to notify them when it was in range, then turn the radar on to get a lock for the shot. Or even just IR. Recall, the Houthis gave stealth F35s some near misses over Yemen, no doubt supplied and trained by the Iranians.
> During the entire gulf war (Iraq, 1990-91), only two F-15s were shot down via surface-to-air engagement.
was it because F-15 was used as superiority fighter at that time and now they use it as heavy bomber? I assume plenty of bombers likely was shot down in Iraq.
We have attacked their “legacy” air defense systems. We cannot really degrade their ability to use their anti-aircraft loitering missiles which don’t rely on radar.
1) The US has run 13,000 missions over Iran in the last month. Thats a lot of targets.
2) The initial US degradation of Iraqi capabilities was much much greater in gulf war 1.
3) F15s are not stealth fighters.
4) This is 35 years later.
5) "strategic bombing" of air defenses is mostly accomplished with our cruise missiles. We'll take out any air defenses we find, but you don't fly non-stealth planes over SAM batteries intentionally.
We haven't even started a ground campaign. If one plane is downed per 13000 missions, I think we're doing ok.
75000+ palestinians killed, arguably one of the defining crimes of our age are not worth HN discussion (“politics”) but one F15E shot down in a war of choice is (apparently, “tech”)?
Military aviators train for this, being alone behind enemy lines (look up SERE school if you’re curious, one of the craziest training courses outside of special forces) and there is a special force just for aviator recovery behind enemy lines, US AirForce Pararescue. Hopefully they’ll get the aviators back quickly, the last thing our country needs is American hostages making this ridiculous war harder to stop.
The SA-67 is essentially a hybrid surface-to-air missile and loitering drone that operates like an airborne mine. It’s a pretty innovative weapon: instead of relying on a fast, highly detectable rocket motor, it uses a small gas turbine and passive infrared seeker to silently loiter in a combat zone and then ambush aircraft without ever triggering their traditional radar warning receivers.
To unpoison y'alls priors, I want to remind HN that in the Kosovo air campaign, the Yugoslavs took out a nighthawk (F117) and an F16. They claimed more nighthawks that limped home.
The F117 is a very stealthy plane, given its geometry (flat panels). Yet a 1960s radar with essentially no digital equipment took it out, largely using human intelligence and guerrilla tactics.
Iran has modern digital electronics (to improve the signal to noise ratio, merge different data sources, etc) and modern electronics. They are also master guerrilla fighters and have, great, native missile technology.
Iranian airspace is contested at best. We certainly do not have air superiority over it.
The article says this is the first jet that was shot down by enemy fire this war, but this confuses me. Was the F35 that was downed a while back friendly fire or something? Are F35s not fighter jets?
I think an A-10 is also down (pilot ejected and safe). I'm surprised that they decided to fly an A-10 into Iran. I mean it's a solid plane that can sustain some AD fire, but at the same time it usually operates within the height that MANPADs can reach.
The scale of American air dominance is best demonstrated by how much of a news this event is. In 1999 the scandal was that Serbs managed to shoot down a stealthy plane with then-30 year old Soviet SAM. Now being able to shoot down a nonstealthy one having most modern Russian SAMs in existence is news worthy of being on every screen for 24 hours and collecting 1000+ comments on HN.
Warplanes are disposable. They are built to be shot down. If they aren't, they are not being used intensely enough or are just wrong tools for the job - a warplane that flies a mission and always comes back is like a test that never fails.
I see a ton of bickering, however, I simply have to ask the question: how can anyone justify the United States of America and Israel attacking ANY country? It isn't our job, nor is it Israel's, to try and be the world police. People are dying, and because of a certain corpse-to-be controlling MY country, the world is beginning to suffer and it is going to get so much worse. Some economists are saying gas rationing will begin happening within the next 9-15 months. Iran has NO incentive to be diplomatic. On top of that, invisible damage that nobody is reporting about is being done...damage that could last years or possibly decades to very small, yet super important parts of the world supply chain that powers everything from fertilizer to pharmaceuticals. There is not a single person in the world that should be supporting this war. I don't care what your beliefs are. The results WILL affect you, and you won't get a bailout.
This is the dumbest, most pointless military conflict in American history. There is nothing plausible to win, but we can conceivably lose everything. A pyric victory is among the most favorable outcomes. We are led by corrupt imbeciles. I can only hope the outcome includes regime change for the U.S.
If the pilots are recovered we probably won't hear about it from either side for hours. Iran will want to get them a mile underground before they send out the B-rolls. If recovered by the US, they will want them out of theater before anyone knows better so they can't be targeted.
I feel that the current war is by far the most closest to showing to people that this war is waged by the rich. Because they are the primary ones to benefit right now (if we ignore Netanyahu, but Netanyahu's war goals "make sense", e. g. this is done for expansion and/or control; Trump's involvement makes no real sense, except for benefitting some with insider trading and making other cronies rich).
Let's hope Iran doesn't follow the "no quarter, no mercy" policy laid out by US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth. For the unfamiliar, it means executing survivors and surrendering combatants. Aka war crimes.
Good. Americans need to pay a very severe price for the evil they have unleased on the world. Anything less, and this lunacy will happen again in the future.
If true I can’t imagine it will play well even among Trumps base. When was the last time a US fighter jet was shot down? 1999 during the intervention in the balkans?
Via the NYT:
Mohammad Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran’s Parliament and a key government figure overseeing the war, took to social media to mock the Trump administration as U.S. forces searched for a missing American airman from a downed fighter plane. “This brilliant no-strategy war they started has now been downgraded from ‘regime change’ to ‘Hey! Can anyone find our pilots? Please?’”he said in a post on X. “Wow. What incredible progress. Absolute geniuses.”
1397 comments
An F-15 being shot down in Iran after weeks of strategic bombing of their anti-air defense systems is not a good sign.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/04/03/world/iran-war-trump...
> A second Air Force combat plane crashed in the Persian Gulf region on Friday, and the lone pilot was safely rescued, according to two U.S. officials who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss operational matters. The A-10 Warthog attack plane went down near the Strait of Hormuz about the same time that an Air Force F-15E was shot down over Iran, the officials said. In that incident, one crew member was rescued and search-and-rescue operators are looking for the second airman. Officials provided scant details about the A-10 crash, including how and where it happened.
there's some additional osint rumor mill that a blackhawk helicopter involved in rescue operations was also shot down but claims that crew been recovered
No such analogous advantage exists in Iran, which is a much larger country, with better air defenses, and no western contractors ready to provide back doors into systems.
Given Iran ought to have far better SAM systems than Iraq 35 years ago, this comparison doesn't seem in any way alarming.
For a more direct comparison, in the first 5 weeks of the invasion of Ukraine, Russia flew approximately 7000 combat sorties and 22 fixed wing aircraft were shot down.
"Yugoslav air defences were much fewer than what Iraq had deployed during the Gulf War – an estimated 16 SA-3 and 25 SA-6 surface-to-air missile systems, plus numerous anti-aircraft artillery (AAA) and man-portable air defence systems (MANPADS) – but unlike the Iraqis they took steps to preserve their assets. Prior to the conflict's start Yugoslav SAMs were preemptively dispersed away from their garrisons and practiced emission control to decrease NATO's ability to locate them."
So their SAMs likely just got stealth bombed / bombed from a distance.
> An F-15 being shot down in Iran after weeks of strategic bombing of their anti-air defense systems is not a good sign.
Why? We don't know exactly what happened but its easy to imagine that Iran held some anti-air systems in reserve for this phase of the war. They aren't trying to defend a target, their goal was likely to stay hidden and wait for an opportunity. They could keep the radar off and use a passive sensor network to notify them when it was in range, then turn the radar on to get a lock for the shot. Or even just IR. Recall, the Houthis gave stealth F35s some near misses over Yemen, no doubt supplied and trained by the Iranians.
https://www.twz.com/air/how-the-houthis-rickety-air-defenses...
> During the entire gulf war (Iraq, 1990-91), only two F-15s were shot down via surface-to-air engagement.
was it because F-15 was used as superiority fighter at that time and now they use it as heavy bomber? I assume plenty of bombers likely was shot down in Iraq.
https://cat-uxo.com/explosive-hazards/missiles/358-missile-S...
https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/02/politics/iran-missiles-us-mil...
Doesn't break out anti-air, but Iran absolutely has a lot of teeth left.
2) The initial US degradation of Iraqi capabilities was much much greater in gulf war 1.
3) F15s are not stealth fighters.
4) This is 35 years later.
5) "strategic bombing" of air defenses is mostly accomplished with our cruise missiles. We'll take out any air defenses we find, but you don't fly non-stealth planes over SAM batteries intentionally.
We haven't even started a ground campaign. If one plane is downed per 13000 missions, I think we're doing ok.
75000+ palestinians killed, arguably one of the defining crimes of our age are not worth HN discussion (“politics”) but one F15E shot down in a war of choice is (apparently, “tech”)?
The SA-67 is essentially a hybrid surface-to-air missile and loitering drone that operates like an airborne mine. It’s a pretty innovative weapon: instead of relying on a fast, highly detectable rocket motor, it uses a small gas turbine and passive infrared seeker to silently loiter in a combat zone and then ambush aircraft without ever triggering their traditional radar warning receivers.
I do wonder if Iran finds them first, will they treat them better than the US treated survivors of the ship sunk by a US torpedo in the Indiana Ocean?
This is what real sanctions look like. The west broke the deal, attacked like terrorists, and are now being sanctioned.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_aviation_shootdowns_an...
Iran: 40, Israel: 18, US: 36, Others: 7
The F117 is a very stealthy plane, given its geometry (flat panels). Yet a 1960s radar with essentially no digital equipment took it out, largely using human intelligence and guerrilla tactics.
Iran has modern digital electronics (to improve the signal to noise ratio, merge different data sources, etc) and modern electronics. They are also master guerrilla fighters and have, great, native missile technology.
Iranian airspace is contested at best. We certainly do not have air superiority over it.
Average comments sentiment when an American is caught while bombing bridges and elementary schools: poor thing hope they treat him well
Warplanes are disposable. They are built to be shot down. If they aren't, they are not being used intensely enough or are just wrong tools for the job - a warplane that flies a mission and always comes back is like a test that never fails.
"U.S. Conducting Rescue Operation After Jet Went Down Over Iran"
I feel that the current war is by far the most closest to showing to people that this war is waged by the rich. Because they are the primary ones to benefit right now (if we ignore Netanyahu, but Netanyahu's war goals "make sense", e. g. this is done for expansion and/or control; Trump's involvement makes no real sense, except for benefitting some with insider trading and making other cronies rich).
https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/03/politics/us-fighter-jet-iran
https://www.axios.com/2026/04/05/iran-f15-crew-member-rescue...