This seems like one of the first very clear indications that separating your country from the US can be beneficial. The first stone unturned - will we see more countries aligning with other powers?
I like the progress but I think the article oversell the hope here. Its not about getting to 10s of crossings a day. The previous volume of ships was 130-140 per day. If the capacity of the strait is down +90% their is going to be long lasting problems. I've seen as many as 3 million of the ~20 million barrals might be getting through. The 17m/day deficit has to come from somewhere i.e more coal or increased oil prices or reduced World GDP by reduced production/consumption.
Also Iran's leverage is in the reduced world volume. If they allow 110 Ships to go through but block the 20 american-aligned (vastly over stated US-bound ships are not anywhere near 20/day). Than the problem for the US is minimized because that would stablize oil prices a reduction of 2% of the world supply might be managable 20% is very hard to make up. Being seperated from the US does not = safety because Iran's leverage is the world shock that will effect the US last. The US is net exporter of Oil. They also import a ton of oil from other nations though due to the Jones act (temporarily on hold). Oil is a world market if cheap oil flows Iran's leverage is gone.
Seems reasonable that the blockade also means big negative impact on X random country -> that country pressures or builds distaste for US. May be an effective way to further sway the distaste for the US across the world.
The only countries going to war with Iran are Israel and USA. The other countries are negotiating with Iran and reportedly paying the toll. Also, the strait has been open to Spanish tankers since two weeks ago.
> Also, the strait has been open to Spanish tankers since two weeks ago.
But no Spanish tankers have gone through so that doesn't seem to be accurate. An Iranian diplomat saying that publicly doesn't matter when the irgc continues to shoot them. The only known European aligned tanker to have gone through is this French one we are reading about here.
While there are reports that Iran has been charging a toll on some ships from "hostile" countries, there is no such report suggesting that the French, Japanese and Omani ships cited in this news report did so too.
In this particular case, it is a diplomatic and reciprocal gesture of goodwill from Iran - the French have publicly said that joint military operations to open the Strait is a bad a idea and diplomatic options need to be pursued for the same while the Japanese have confirmed that they won't be sending any minesweepers to the Strait (Japan Isn’t Sending Minesweepers to Middle East, Takaichi Says - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-12/japan-isn... ). Oman, of course, has been the mediator in the early US-Iran negotiations, and has publicly said Iran cannot be blamed for the US-Israel attacks ('This war is not of their making,' Omani foreign minister says of Iran - https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/war-not-their-making-oman... ) as it had accepted a new nuclear deal with the Trump administration during the negotiations (Peace ‘within reach’ as Iran agrees no nuclear material stockpile: Oman FM - https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/28/peace-within-reach-... ). He has blamed the Trump administration for undermining negotiations and implied that they acted in bad faith.
This is just a culmination of the last two years of tension. The most recent friction is around Lebanon where France sees itself as the protector of its former colony.
Interesting take from Le Monde: "Israel turns its back on France as Paris struggles to maintain dialogue"
France also joined China and Russia in blocking Bahreini resolution that would authorise "all defensive means necessary" to protect commercial shipping in the strait. That is why their tanker passed.
If that was true many more tankers would have passed from other countries that were more against the war.
France is one of few countries with large military presence in the area, that is the only thing they do more than most other countries.
Edit: And France even directly threatened to use force here. If you only read American news you wouldn't know since they want it to seem like the world is on Irans side here. What we are seeing is that Iran has started buckling to these threats, not that they are giving passage to those who didn't threaten.
> France is advising Bahrain on a draft United Nations Security Council resolution that would authorize the use of force to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore global energy flows, according to three diplomats informed of the process.
France also has a problem with Israel waging war in Lebanon, a former French administered teritory. As long as Israel sticks to eliminating Hezbollah only, they'll shut up about it, but anything beyond that, like that bridge bombing or displacing and killing civilians it's bound to have a negative reaction from France.
"President Donald Trump on Tuesday warned the U.K. and France that the U.S. “won’t be there to help you anymore,” as he vented his frustration over the close allies’ refusal to join military action against Iran."
> The current Japanese leader is also a war mongerer, so I'd bet they also threatened to enter the war on USA's side if their ships weren't allowed to pass.
The amount of misinformation foreign people have about Takaichi-san is staggering. She is by no means a "war mongerer" and the Japanese constitution has clear limits that prevent Japan from doing virtually anything. The reason why Japan can get a pass is because they specifically have diplomatic relations with Iran, and when she met with Trump, she promised absolutely nothing due to constitutional limits.
Last week the US stated they didn't need any of the oil, and that if other countries wanted it they could go figure it out themselves. Looks like they have. And yet the US is now back to threatening Iran if they don't open up the oil.
Israel recently refused to buy more French military equipment, and France's relations with Israel is at a low; I'm wondering it was the reason the French vessel was allowed through.
That is a good move from Iran. The EU is tired of US induced wars, tired of Greenland threats and just wants to focus on its economy.
In a US war you always have to ask yourself if you do exactly what the US wants in secret. Here it could very well be that the Gulf monarchies are deliberately weakened and the EU/Japan/China are cut off from fossil fuels, so they are even more dependent on the US.
Just about a week ago, Trump was joking about Pearl Harbor on TV while the Japanese PM was sitting right next to him. What's more, she's a nationalist.
The US , when finally back in control by reasonable adults, will need to offer great concessions to Iran in order to extricate from the effects of a disastrous, illegal (both from a US as well as an intentional standpoint) and of course, completely, utterly failed war. And it might be just that Iran gets to be a permanent toll collector for the global economy.
There’s every chance that the US loses the trust of the GCC countries and they choose to spend their oil money away from the US should all of this madness ever calm down.
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Also Iran's leverage is in the reduced world volume. If they allow 110 Ships to go through but block the 20 american-aligned (vastly over stated US-bound ships are not anywhere near 20/day). Than the problem for the US is minimized because that would stablize oil prices a reduction of 2% of the world supply might be managable 20% is very hard to make up. Being seperated from the US does not = safety because Iran's leverage is the world shock that will effect the US last. The US is net exporter of Oil. They also import a ton of oil from other nations though due to the Jones act (temporarily on hold). Oil is a world market if cheap oil flows Iran's leverage is gone.
> Also, the strait has been open to Spanish tankers since two weeks ago.
But no Spanish tankers have gone through so that doesn't seem to be accurate. An Iranian diplomat saying that publicly doesn't matter when the irgc continues to shoot them. The only known European aligned tanker to have gone through is this French one we are reading about here.
In this particular case, it is a diplomatic and reciprocal gesture of goodwill from Iran - the French have publicly said that joint military operations to open the Strait is a bad a idea and diplomatic options need to be pursued for the same while the Japanese have confirmed that they won't be sending any minesweepers to the Strait (Japan Isn’t Sending Minesweepers to Middle East, Takaichi Says - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-12/japan-isn... ). Oman, of course, has been the mediator in the early US-Iran negotiations, and has publicly said Iran cannot be blamed for the US-Israel attacks ('This war is not of their making,' Omani foreign minister says of Iran - https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/war-not-their-making-oman... ) as it had accepted a new nuclear deal with the Trump administration during the negotiations (Peace ‘within reach’ as Iran agrees no nuclear material stockpile: Oman FM - https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/28/peace-within-reach-... ). He has blamed the Trump administration for undermining negotiations and implied that they acted in bad faith.
Interesting take from Le Monde: "Israel turns its back on France as Paris struggles to maintain dialogue"
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2026/04/01/i...
https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/europe/2026/04/03/franc...
France is one of few countries with large military presence in the area, that is the only thing they do more than most other countries.
Edit: And France even directly threatened to use force here. If you only read American news you wouldn't know since they want it to seem like the world is on Irans side here. What we are seeing is that Iran has started buckling to these threats, not that they are giving passage to those who didn't threaten.
> France is advising Bahrain on a draft United Nations Security Council resolution that would authorize the use of force to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore global energy flows, according to three diplomats informed of the process.
https://www.politico.eu/article/france-advising-bahrain-un-s...
> France and Japan never distanced themselves from USA here.
Trump sure seems to think France did.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/31/trump-attacks-uk-france-x-po...
"President Donald Trump on Tuesday warned the U.K. and France that the U.S. “won’t be there to help you anymore,” as he vented his frustration over the close allies’ refusal to join military action against Iran."
> The current Japanese leader is also a war mongerer, so I'd bet they also threatened to enter the war on USA's side if their ships weren't allowed to pass.
The amount of misinformation foreign people have about Takaichi-san is staggering. She is by no means a "war mongerer" and the Japanese constitution has clear limits that prevent Japan from doing virtually anything. The reason why Japan can get a pass is because they specifically have diplomatic relations with Iran, and when she met with Trump, she promised absolutely nothing due to constitutional limits.
In a US war you always have to ask yourself if you do exactly what the US wants in secret. Here it could very well be that the Gulf monarchies are deliberately weakened and the EU/Japan/China are cut off from fossil fuels, so they are even more dependent on the US.