They've been asking this question since before 2013. The writing has been on the wall since the US started demonstrating that it thinks debt monetisation is an acceptable strategy.
Have outlets like Deutsche Welle been speaking like this since 2013? I don't really think so. Not to defend the past administrations, but that the question is starting to hit mainstream media does in fact tell a huge lot about this current one.
Debt monetization is not happening. There's been significant expansion of the money supply, which got the US through COVID at a one-off cost of about 10% inflation in one year, which I think was a reasonable cost of covering the crisis (especially compared to the GDP response in less generous countries!)
What's happening is a much simpler, more drastic concern: does the US respect its international commitments?
Today, a large national poll in Spain showed trump as the largest national threat identified by citizens (81% agree), placing him well above putin. This is consistent even among right wing voters (71%). People also place "American military actions" and "global economic crisis caused by the US" as the largest global risks.
> The fact that this question needs asking tells a lot about how other countries see the current administration.
Not really. You just weren't paying attention before. To wit, countries (including Germany!) have been questioning the safety of storing gold in the United State long before the Trump administration.
Probably safe as long as Germany is amenable to supporting "American interests" which can be anything and everything as decided by a human RNG they choose to elect.
We don't even need to theorize how this can go wrong. We've got a real example: the French CFA system that is used to do economic colonialism in West Africa [1]. Basically, it works like this:
14 French-speaking Africian former colonies keep significant (>50%) of their gold reserves with the French treasury and use the CFA Franc as a currency, which is pegged to the Euro.
The colonial model is one of discouraging or even outright banning being self-sufficient. Crops that might otherwise feed the local populace are replaced to exportable cash crops. In particular, that's the World Bank/IMF model of "helping".
Anyway, Germany isn't a US imperial interest in the same way Cote d'Ivoire is for France... yet. Still, there are other mechanisms beyond gold that the US uses to influence or even control Germany (ie NATO).
For Germany's national interests, the ideal probably would have been repatriation back in early 2010. A decade after Poland had joined NATO, half a decade after the Baltic States had - the threat of Russia somehow seizing the gold was at a nadir. The 2007-9 fiscal crisis was safely past, the Euro crisis not yet too dire, Obama was in the White House, and the winds were otherwise favorable for quietly sailing Germany's gold back home.
Second best might have been for Germany to get its gold back in mid-2021 - Biden in the White House, but events of 6 Jan '21 making it really obvious that the US wasn't nearly so stable as in the good old days.
Vs. raising the subject now*, with a very temperamental administration in Washington, feels ill-advised. Though I'm probably marking myself as a senile idealist, to even think of a national gov't, or leading media outlet, intelligently working for its nation's long-term interests.
From another angle, I could see leaving it in NYC as a symptom of advanced calcification of Germany's politics and gov't bureaucracy. Moving the gold home would require major decisions, real organizing, and competent execution. Vs. the relative do-nothing of inaction, forever turning the crank of old routines, is so much easier.
Of course not. That's why Charles de Gaulle repatriated French gold from the New York Fed in the 1960s. Before Trump, there was Nixon, the US has form in reneging on its commitments.
It seems there are still 138 tons of gold left over that will be recovered by 2028:
Having your stuff stored in another country is ultimately a voucher of confidence, I can't see Trump or anyone else willingly misusing that trust. I do think the Western leaders need to temper their tendencies for isolationism these days, what's the alternative guys? And why even think that other people/cultures will want you in their swimming-pool if you can't keep your own one clean/functional?
(this comment also covers France recently bringing home their gold)
Not really Trump-specific is it, given Europe seized a ton of Russian assets. Maybe they just realized how easy that was and that nobody is going to war over it.
It’s brave to assume the gold is still there. Nobody checks it; last time they did, a bunch of bars were made of tungsten.
If you’re someone guarding the gold, you’d have to be stupid not to replace it with tungsten. A single bar is a lifetime of wages. It’s not like anyone will ever notice, it’s a reserve that will never be spent.
277 comments
What's happening is a much simpler, more drastic concern: does the US respect its international commitments?
> The fact that this question needs asking tells a lot about how other countries see the current administration.
Not really. You just weren't paying attention before. To wit, countries (including Germany!) have been questioning the safety of storing gold in the United State long before the Trump administration.
Examples 2012: Venezuela Receives Last Shipment of Repatriated Gold Bars https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2012-01-31/venezuela...
2013: Bundesbank to retrieve $200bn of gold reserves (Bundesbank is Germany’s independent central bank) https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/jan/15/bundesbank-ret...
2014: Netherlands moves 122.5 from New York https://www.dutchnews.nl/2016/02/85796-2/
There's obviously more, but that gives you a sense of it.
14 French-speaking Africian former colonies keep significant (>50%) of their gold reserves with the French treasury and use the CFA Franc as a currency, which is pegged to the Euro.
The colonial model is one of discouraging or even outright banning being self-sufficient. Crops that might otherwise feed the local populace are replaced to exportable cash crops. In particular, that's the World Bank/IMF model of "helping".
Anyway, Germany isn't a US imperial interest in the same way Cote d'Ivoire is for France... yet. Still, there are other mechanisms beyond gold that the US uses to influence or even control Germany (ie NATO).
[1]: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/how-the-france-backed-afr...
How they dealt with Iran is how I expect them to deal with everyone else - They started bombing the country during negotiations.
What is amazing is that they just didn't seize Germany's gold yet.
The French sold theirs and bought new stock on the European market.
:-))
Second best might have been for Germany to get its gold back in mid-2021 - Biden in the White House, but events of 6 Jan '21 making it really obvious that the US wasn't nearly so stable as in the good old days.
Vs. raising the subject now*, with a very temperamental administration in Washington, feels ill-advised. Though I'm probably marking myself as a senile idealist, to even think of a national gov't, or leading media outlet, intelligently working for its nation's long-term interests.
From another angle, I could see leaving it in NYC as a symptom of advanced calcification of Germany's politics and gov't bureaucracy. Moving the gold home would require major decisions, real organizing, and competent execution. Vs. the relative do-nothing of inaction, forever turning the crank of old routines, is so much easier.
*Yes, I noticed the article's 2 Feb 2026 date.
It seems there are still 138 tons of gold left over that will be recovered by 2028:
https://www.mining.com/france-pulls-last-gold-held-in-us-for...
I think the question is moot now.
Update: corrected a bit of history.
The question should why has not Germany pulled gold out to server two goals:
1. Financial gain 2. another step towards economic independence from USA
France already did the right thing....
Pay attention, as it does not hurt the world and economic system for multiple world reserve currencies to exist....EU might as be a reserve currency.
(this comment also covers France recently bringing home their gold)
"We're going to take all of their oil. And there is nothing they can do about it..."
Ahhh crap.
If you’re someone guarding the gold, you’d have to be stupid not to replace it with tungsten. A single bar is a lifetime of wages. It’s not like anyone will ever notice, it’s a reserve that will never be spent.