People will bet on absolutely anything; gambling is as old as time itself.
> Wagering was generally legal under British common law, so long as it did not to
lead to immortality or impolity.13 Bets about the outcome of events in war, over the
death of political leaders, over court cases, or between voters over election results were
illegal on these grounds.14 In the Victorian and Edwardian periods, the British
government increasingly attempted to limit gambling, especially among the working
classes. The Gaming Act of 1845 made gambling contracts and debts unenforceable in
court (but otherwise liberalized what amounts could be wagered); the Betting Houses Act
of 1853 outlawed the operation of betting establishments other than private clubs; the
Betting Houses Act of 1874 cracked down of the advertisement of wagering; and the
Street Betting Act of 1906 made acceptance of wagers in streets and public places
illegal.15 Despite the legal uncertainty in the late 19th and early 20th century, the Fleet
Street press reported on election wagering at the London Stock Exchange and at Lloyd’s
in markets for Parliamentary “majorities.” [^0]
Your comment is a great addition to the conversation. I do just want to add the scale point, though. That source is less than a million was bet, and now there are hundreds of millions bet on the ceasefire, and millions more on other Iran bets, and then even more bet on Russia/Ukraine.
So I think it's a bit overstated to frame it as nothing is new. But your historical context is helpful.
> That source is less than a million was bet, and now there are hundreds of millions bet on the ceasefire, and millions more on other Iran bets, and then even more bet on Russia/Ukraine.
I'd imagine those numbers are typical for any transaction facilitated by the Internet comparing 2003 to 2026.
It seems to me there's an explosion in just the last few years that's noteworthy -- that gambling on war did not simply grow hand-in-hand with all web purchases. Am happy to be wrong, but that's my experience seeing this play out.
I’m sure that immortality was meant to be immorality, but the idea of British law prohibiting some Faustian bargain struck with eternal life on the line if the wager works in your favor gave me a good chuckle.
There was a small period, yes, where the internet was less regulated because the government didn't want to stomp out a new technology and let another country get an advantage. Now that the US has the advantage they are only harming their citizens by leaving it unregulated. Less people engage in a behavior if it's illegal and uniformly enforced.
Wagering was commonly legal, but generally illegal since 1541 Henry VIII banned for laborers & servants.
True, but I cannot find anything in the article that suggests such betting is a "new" phenomenon
Often unclear to me what is the point behind the common "this is not new" HN reply when the submission makes no explicit or implicit claims that the subject matter is "new", or that being "new" is significant
IMHO, the "this is not new" replies need further elaboration to clarify the point being made
It could be that these "this is not new" HN replies are not responding to the submission, its author or its subject matter but are instead focused on HN thread readers and other HN commenters and what those readers might think or how those commenters might react
If there is a submission or a comment that makes a claim such as "this is unprecedented", then a "this is not new" reply, preferably with supporting evidence, makes sense
This somehow strengthens the argument of the poster you’re replying to? “yes…and?” is a weak response to journalism intended to shine a light on something that causes moral outrage, especially given that “moral outrage” is justified on a highly subjective basis.
Using a question mark in such a statement is a rhetorical device to indicate an implicit question, such as “did you intend to write a comment that sounded like an argument, yet only strengthened the argument of the comment you were responding to.” Conversationally, humans usually inflect the end of the sentence to indicate such uncertainty. Have you had a conversation with a human before?
Every shareholder of an arms company (or holder of an index tracker), is betting on war too.
This mechanism is stupid, corrupt and driving extreme behaviour.
But betting on war is not new, and I find it abhorrent that people will hand wave away the military-industrial complex as an essential component to modern civilisation while calling individuals making bets on war horrible names.
It's just scale and semantics, not core differences to my eye.
> It's just scale and semantics, not core differences to my eye.
Is this meant to be an excuse that justifies this gambling behavior? Children’s hospitals also gain a profit from the suffering and death of children, yet we would find it pretty abhorrent if people started betting on how many children died at the Mayo Clinic. Yet, it’s only scale and semantics.
Giving people an easy way to profit (i.e. incentive) to use either direct political power or indirect power via bribes is going to have massive consequences on corruption.
We've made profiting off of corruption substantially easier. Anyone who thinks that isn't going to increase corruption is a moron.
Anyone who thinks having more corruption is a good thing is also a moron.
It's also going to lead to assassination markets, either directly or indirectly.
> "Johnny CEO will be alive in 2027"
That might be banned from platforms (though not illegal), but this isn't:
> "Jonny CEO is the primary reason ComanyAbc stock is so overheated. CompanyAbc stock will close above X market cap on December 31, 2027."
That is an indirect proxy for assassination.
There are multiple things that could happen here:
- Assassin(s) place bets for outcome favored by assassination, then assassinate.
- Rival(s) place bets for outcome that do not favor assassination to either claim lack of responsibility or to attract bad outcomes. They might publicly announce it, then quietly work on implementing the outcome or let it arise naturally to take the other side of the bet.
I can think of a number of CEOs, politicians, and world leaders where this would put them in the crosshairs and make market participants very wealthy.
Even the "X candidate wins Y election" outcomes are subject to this.
chances of that passing are roughly in-line with chances of passing a bill to prevent our congressmen and senators from insider trading (you can also bet this as well :) )
Traditional financial markets already give people really big incentives to cause all kinds of mischief. Eg buy a few puts, then publish some made up bad news about the company and profit.
Somehow that doesn't seem to be too much of a problem in practice.
I don't care if someone tanks MSFT stock artificially or deservedly.
I do care if someone pays the president of Cuba $300k to launch a rocket at a skyscraper in Miami to start a war so they can make $1M.
If you're invested in MSFT, you signed up to be some part of a casino.
If you just live in the real world, you ideally did not sign up for infinite corruption that actually impacts your life just because someone wants to bribe politicians to get an ROI.
> I do care if someone pays the president of Cuba $300k to launch a rocket at a skyscraper in Miami to start a war so they can make $1M.
Something is very wrong, if Cuba is so easily bought.
Btw, if that were so easy, why would counterparties even trade with the better at these prices? (And why wouldn't they also spend money influencing the president of Cuba?)
And: a war with Cuba with seriously dent share prices. So you can already do the bet you suggest by shorting stocks or buying put options.
I mean, the moment the American Supreme Court gave the president immunity for acts in office, they basically gave him the ability to issue a price list for doing absolutely anything.
Could you explain what do you mean? What's the plan and execution here? Planning and executing invasion? If so, there are much better markets than polymarket for making such bets.
The first people betting on the outcome they want vs outcome they think will happen.
I think the second obviously make sense. If you had two experts arguing over how a war would go and they where willing to make a bet on it that is good because they are putting “their money where their mouth is” or have “skin in the game”. That’s a good thing.
The first implies manipulation or just a moralistic problem.
The issue I guess is it’s not possible to have one without the other. But I would guess most people are betting because of the second reason and not the first.
Just want to reiterate that prediction markets are beneficial, because they are the most accurate way to provide us with a dynamic mechanism to predict future outcomes from complicated systems.
As was put forth in James Suroweicki’s the Wisdom of Crowds, prediction markets provide predictions that tend to be more accurate than any expert, team of experts, etc. That doesn’t mean it’s 100% accurate, but it tends to be more accurate than any other mechanism that we have.
The benefit is not that gamblers have a place to gamble, but that society has a way to gauge the risks of different outcomes and plan accordingly.
Any time the headline is gamblers making millions the reality is 90% of gamblers losing, maybe 9% breaking even or making small wins, and a few making millions.
128 comments
People will bet on absolutely anything; gambling is as old as time itself.
> Wagering was generally legal under British common law, so long as it did not to lead to immortality or impolity.13 Bets about the outcome of events in war, over the death of political leaders, over court cases, or between voters over election results were illegal on these grounds.14 In the Victorian and Edwardian periods, the British government increasingly attempted to limit gambling, especially among the working classes. The Gaming Act of 1845 made gambling contracts and debts unenforceable in court (but otherwise liberalized what amounts could be wagered); the Betting Houses Act of 1853 outlawed the operation of betting establishments other than private clubs; the Betting Houses Act of 1874 cracked down of the advertisement of wagering; and the Street Betting Act of 1906 made acceptance of wagers in streets and public places illegal.15 Despite the legal uncertainty in the late 19th and early 20th century, the Fleet Street press reported on election wagering at the London Stock Exchange and at Lloyd’s in markets for Parliamentary “majorities.” [^0]
[^0] Rhode, Paul W. “The Long History of Political Betting Markets.” KU School of Business, 2012 March. https://users.wfu.edu/strumpks/papers/Int_Election_Betting_F...
So I think it's a bit overstated to frame it as nothing is new. But your historical context is helpful.
> That source is less than a million was bet, and now there are hundreds of millions bet on the ceasefire, and millions more on other Iran bets, and then even more bet on Russia/Ukraine.
I'd imagine those numbers are typical for any transaction facilitated by the Internet comparing 2003 to 2026.
Wagering was commonly legal, but generally illegal since 1541 Henry VIII banned for laborers & servants.
True, but I cannot find anything in the article that suggests such betting is a "new" phenomenon
Often unclear to me what is the point behind the common "this is not new" HN reply when the submission makes no explicit or implicit claims that the subject matter is "new", or that being "new" is significant
IMHO, the "this is not new" replies need further elaboration to clarify the point being made
If there is a submission or a comment that makes a claim such as "this is unprecedented", then a "this is not new" reply, preferably with supporting evidence, makes sense
But that's not what's going on here
> Often unclear to me what is the point behind the common "this is not new" HN...
Because articles like this tend to come with a implicit or explicit moral outrage.
So these comments are the equivalent of "yes... and?"
> This somehow strengthens the argument of the poster you’re replying to?
Is that a question or a statement?
Murder is also old as time itself! Guess we just gotta let it happen!
This mechanism is stupid, corrupt and driving extreme behaviour.
But betting on war is not new, and I find it abhorrent that people will hand wave away the military-industrial complex as an essential component to modern civilisation while calling individuals making bets on war horrible names.
It's just scale and semantics, not core differences to my eye.
> It's just scale and semantics, not core differences to my eye.
Is this meant to be an excuse that justifies this gambling behavior? Children’s hospitals also gain a profit from the suffering and death of children, yet we would find it pretty abhorrent if people started betting on how many children died at the Mayo Clinic. Yet, it’s only scale and semantics.
We've made profiting off of corruption substantially easier. Anyone who thinks that isn't going to increase corruption is a moron.
Anyone who thinks having more corruption is a good thing is also a moron.
> "Johnny CEO will be alive in 2027"
That might be banned from platforms (though not illegal), but this isn't:
> "Jonny CEO is the primary reason ComanyAbc stock is so overheated. CompanyAbc stock will close above X market cap on December 31, 2027."
That is an indirect proxy for assassination.
There are multiple things that could happen here:
- Assassin(s) place bets for outcome favored by assassination, then assassinate.
- Rival(s) place bets for outcome that do not favor assassination to either claim lack of responsibility or to attract bad outcomes. They might publicly announce it, then quietly work on implementing the outcome or let it arise naturally to take the other side of the bet.
I can think of a number of CEOs, politicians, and world leaders where this would put them in the crosshairs and make market participants very wealthy.
Even the "X candidate wins Y election" outcomes are subject to this.
> That might be banned from platforms (though not illegal)
They are currently trying to fix this: https://www.hickenlooper.senate.gov/press_releases/hickenloo...
I guess people do walk into casinos and play games that are legally controlled to have outcomes favoring the casino.
This whole thing isa KGB propaganda tool + method to give bribes and should be banmed by the Western world.
Somehow that doesn't seem to be too much of a problem in practice.
I do care if someone pays the president of Cuba $300k to launch a rocket at a skyscraper in Miami to start a war so they can make $1M.
If you're invested in MSFT, you signed up to be some part of a casino.
If you just live in the real world, you ideally did not sign up for infinite corruption that actually impacts your life just because someone wants to bribe politicians to get an ROI.
> I do care if someone pays the president of Cuba $300k to launch a rocket at a skyscraper in Miami to start a war so they can make $1M.
Something is very wrong, if Cuba is so easily bought.
Btw, if that were so easy, why would counterparties even trade with the better at these prices? (And why wouldn't they also spend money influencing the president of Cuba?)
And: a war with Cuba with seriously dent share prices. So you can already do the bet you suggest by shorting stocks or buying put options.
The first people betting on the outcome they want vs outcome they think will happen.
I think the second obviously make sense. If you had two experts arguing over how a war would go and they where willing to make a bet on it that is good because they are putting “their money where their mouth is” or have “skin in the game”. That’s a good thing.
The first implies manipulation or just a moralistic problem.
The issue I guess is it’s not possible to have one without the other. But I would guess most people are betting because of the second reason and not the first.
As was put forth in James Suroweicki’s the Wisdom of Crowds, prediction markets provide predictions that tend to be more accurate than any expert, team of experts, etc. That doesn’t mean it’s 100% accurate, but it tends to be more accurate than any other mechanism that we have.
The benefit is not that gamblers have a place to gamble, but that society has a way to gauge the risks of different outcomes and plan accordingly.