People will bet on absolutely anything; gambling is as old as time itself.
> Wagering was generally legal under British common law, so long as it did not to
lead to immortality or impolity.13 Bets about the outcome of events in war, over the
death of political leaders, over court cases, or between voters over election results were
illegal on these grounds.14 In the Victorian and Edwardian periods, the British
government increasingly attempted to limit gambling, especially among the working
classes. The Gaming Act of 1845 made gambling contracts and debts unenforceable in
court (but otherwise liberalized what amounts could be wagered); the Betting Houses Act
of 1853 outlawed the operation of betting establishments other than private clubs; the
Betting Houses Act of 1874 cracked down of the advertisement of wagering; and the
Street Betting Act of 1906 made acceptance of wagers in streets and public places
illegal.15 Despite the legal uncertainty in the late 19th and early 20th century, the Fleet
Street press reported on election wagering at the London Stock Exchange and at Lloyd’s
in markets for Parliamentary “majorities.” [^0]
Every shareholder of an arms company (or holder of an index tracker), is betting on war too.
This mechanism is stupid, corrupt and driving extreme behaviour.
But betting on war is not new, and I find it abhorrent that people will hand wave away the military-industrial complex as an essential component to modern civilisation while calling individuals making bets on war horrible names.
It's just scale and semantics, not core differences to my eye.
Just want to reiterate that prediction markets are beneficial, because they are the most accurate way to provide us with a dynamic mechanism to predict future outcomes from complicated systems.
As was put forth in James Suroweicki’s the Wisdom of Crowds, prediction markets provide predictions that tend to be more accurate than any expert, team of experts, etc. That doesn’t mean it’s 100% accurate, but it tends to be more accurate than any other mechanism that we have.
The benefit is not that gamblers have a place to gamble, but that society has a way to gauge the risks of different outcomes and plan accordingly.
Any time the headline is gamblers making millions the reality is 90% of gamblers losing, maybe 9% breaking even or making small wins, and a few making millions.
128 comments
People will bet on absolutely anything; gambling is as old as time itself.
> Wagering was generally legal under British common law, so long as it did not to lead to immortality or impolity.13 Bets about the outcome of events in war, over the death of political leaders, over court cases, or between voters over election results were illegal on these grounds.14 In the Victorian and Edwardian periods, the British government increasingly attempted to limit gambling, especially among the working classes. The Gaming Act of 1845 made gambling contracts and debts unenforceable in court (but otherwise liberalized what amounts could be wagered); the Betting Houses Act of 1853 outlawed the operation of betting establishments other than private clubs; the Betting Houses Act of 1874 cracked down of the advertisement of wagering; and the Street Betting Act of 1906 made acceptance of wagers in streets and public places illegal.15 Despite the legal uncertainty in the late 19th and early 20th century, the Fleet Street press reported on election wagering at the London Stock Exchange and at Lloyd’s in markets for Parliamentary “majorities.” [^0]
[^0] Rhode, Paul W. “The Long History of Political Betting Markets.” KU School of Business, 2012 March. https://users.wfu.edu/strumpks/papers/Int_Election_Betting_F...
This mechanism is stupid, corrupt and driving extreme behaviour.
But betting on war is not new, and I find it abhorrent that people will hand wave away the military-industrial complex as an essential component to modern civilisation while calling individuals making bets on war horrible names.
It's just scale and semantics, not core differences to my eye.
As was put forth in James Suroweicki’s the Wisdom of Crowds, prediction markets provide predictions that tend to be more accurate than any expert, team of experts, etc. That doesn’t mean it’s 100% accurate, but it tends to be more accurate than any other mechanism that we have.
The benefit is not that gamblers have a place to gamble, but that society has a way to gauge the risks of different outcomes and plan accordingly.