The Future of Everything Is Lies, I Guess: Safety (aphyr.com)

by aphyr 181 comments 330 points
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181 comments

[−] dredmorbius 32d ago
Other articles in this series discussed over the past five days:

1. Introduction: <https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47689648> (619 comments)

2. Dynamics: <https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47693678> (0 comments)

3. Culture: <https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47703528>

4. Information Ecology: <https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47718502> (106 comments)

5. Annoyances: <https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47730981> (171 comments)

6. Psychological Hazards: <https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47747936> (0 comments)

And this submission makes:

7. Safety: <https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47754379> (89 comments, presently).

There's also a comprehensive PDF version for those who prefer that kind of thing: <https://aphyr.com/data/posts/411/the-future-of-everything-is...> (PDF) 26 pp.

(Derived from aphyr's comment: <https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47754834>.)

[−] jagged-chisel 32d ago
"Alignment"

In what world would I ever expect a commercial (or governmental) entity to have precise alignment with me personally, or even with my own business? I argue those relationships are necessarily adversarial, and trusting anyone else to align their "AI" tool to my goals, needs, and/or desires is a recipe for having my livelihood completely reassigned into someone else's wallet.

[−] seizethecheese 31d ago
Why would relationships with a commercial entity be "necessarily adversarial"? A commercial relationship depends on the product providing more utility than the cost (for the consumer) and providing more revenue than cost (for the commercial entity). This means that while some components of the relationship may be adversarial in some areas, it cannot really be entirely adversarial.
[−] jagged-chisel 31d ago

> Why would relationships with a commercial entity be "necessarily adversarial"?

Because they want to separate me from as much of my money as they can, and I want to keep as much of my money as I can.

[−] apsurd 31d ago
I think we're living in times where the one place that this doesn't hold is now somehow all legal: addiction.
[−] seizethecheese 31d ago
Yeah, addiction and monopoly.
[−] sigbottle 32d ago
Interesting you single out commercial and government entities but not people. What defines the difference? Bureaucracy? Concentration of resources? Legal theory?

I guess I'm trying to wonder why this line of thinking (in theory) doesn't turn to paranoia about everybody. I don't know much ethics or political theory or anything.

[−] jagged-chisel 32d ago

> … paranoia about everybody

It does. People drive these entities. People hide behind the liability shields and authority of these entities. Also notice that I generalized with the phrase “…and trusting anyone…”

[−] dgb23 31d ago
The issue is power.

I'm not an expert in political theory or ethics either, but in my worldview, power relationships matter in these discussions. I believe power and responsibility should go hand in hand, and I hold entities to a standard that is proportional to their power to influence others lives.

If an entity's power is decentralized, for example when it is democratically organized to some degree, then that disperses both power and responsibility.

[−] robot-wrangler 32d ago
You can tell that broad alignment between people is natural just by looking at the effort that corporations and governments make to undermine it. Alignment between people is perhaps not a state of nature, but it really is a pretty normal consequence of a fairly small amount of education and of middle-class existence that is left to itself (i.e. without brain-washing and deliberately working to create out-groups). If you're eating enough and have a few brain cells to rub together, then you definitely want that for your neighbors too because it promotes stability.
[−] JumpCrisscross 31d ago

>

broad alignment between people is natural

Uh, what? People have been killing each other over values misalignments since there have been people. We invented civilization in part to protect our farms and granaries from people who disagreed with us on whose grain was in said granaries.

[−] bluefirebrand 31d ago
We would never have even reached "farms and granaries" if alignment between people didn't happen pretty naturally
[−] JumpCrisscross 31d ago
Fair enough. We are a social species. But those alignments occur in small groups. You don’t need effort by “corporations and governments” for nations of millions of people to schism. If anything, those large institutions drive broad-based alignment.
[−] uoaei 31d ago
Methinks you've been sitting in your armchair too long.

Broad-based alignment doesn't come from nothing, but it is surprisingly easy to achieve when a population recognizes a shared stake. A synthesis between selfishness and altruism emerges when you consider who you can call a "neighbor".

[−] JumpCrisscross 31d ago

>

it is surprisingly easy to achieve when a population recognizes a shared stake

Sure. But it takes work for anything larger than a small, close-knit community. I’m pushing back on the notion that this comes naturally and is a default state. It’s not, at least not relative to people naturally forming in and out groups.

The armchair commenters are probably folks who have never organized a group of people before outside a commercial context.

[−] uoaei 31d ago
You might be treating "neighbor" too literally. People understand the global nature of the limits on resources and by extension the world economy better every year. The boundary of who shares 'stake' grows likewise.
[−] JumpCrisscross 31d ago

>

boundary of who shares 'stake' grows likewise

But that shared stakeholding doesn’t naturally drive alignment. You need journalists, fiction writers, organizers and delegates. Travel and curiosity. These each take effort, resources and organization. It’s something we do well. But it isn’t spontaneous in the way small-group kinship is—it literally emerges if you put people in proximity.

[−] robot-wrangler 31d ago
Couldn't read the next sentence before wading in, huh?
[−] JumpCrisscross 31d ago

>

Couldn't read the next sentence before wading in, huh?

Whatever the difference between naturalness and a state of nature, it has nothing to do with education or middle-class existence.

[−] dns_snek 31d ago
Critical bit:

> i.e. without brain-washing and deliberately working to create out-groups

[−] JumpCrisscross 31d ago
And if my grandmother had wheels she’d be a bicycle. The process of creating an in group naturally creates out groups. The “brainwashing” OP describes is just as natural as social alignment through an innate drive for conformity.
[−] cwmoore 31d ago
Conformity I think follows the innate drive to coerce the nonconformant into compliance
[−] JumpCrisscross 31d ago
Sure. Push and pull. The point is that needs effort to work at larger scales. We don’t “naturally” organize into nations of three hundred million or a billion. To the extent we do, we also “naturally” go to war.
[−] pineaux 31d ago
There is a pretty interesting study of a large group of chimps. I dont remember where exactly but they have been civil warring the last 15 years or so. Point is, it seems that there is some kind of innate group formation process.
[−] zozbot234 32d ago

> You can tell that broad alignment between people is natural

It really isn't. The whole point of the market system is to collectively align people's actions towards a shared target of "Pareto-optimized total welfare". And even then the alignment is approximate and heavily constrained due to a combination of transaction costs (which also account for e.g. externalities) and information asymmetries. But transaction costs and information asymmetries apply to any system of alignment, including non-market ones. The market (augmented with some pre-determined legal assignment of property rights, potentially including quite complex bundles of rules and regulations) is still your best bet.

[−] rockskon 31d ago
Incentives and resources to promote said incentives.
[−] MaulingMonkey 32d ago

> Interesting you single out commercial and government entities but not people. What defines the difference? Bureaucracy? Concentration of resources? Legal theory?

Not OP, but for me, kind family and friends, and various feel-good pieces of fiction and other writing, at least let me envision the possibility of a perfectly kind/dedicated/innocent/naieve individual who is truly on my side 100%. But even that is mostly imagination and fiction... although convincing others of that isn't necessairly an argument worth making.

Commercial entities have a fundamental purpouse of profit. While profit doesn't have to be a zero-sum game - ideally, everyone benefits in a somewhat balanced way - there's some fundamental tension, in that each party's profit is necessairly limited by the other party's.

Government entities have a fundamental purpouse of executing the will of the state, which is rather explicitly not the same thing as the will of you as an individual.

Both commercial and government entities also tend to involve multiple people, which gets statistics working against you - you really gathered that many people who would put your needs above their own, with exactly zero "imposters" - which in this context just means people with a bit of rational self interest?

> I guess I'm trying to wonder why this line of thinking (in theory) doesn't turn to paranoia about everybody. I don't know much ethics or political theory or anything.

Just because you're paranoid, doesn't mean they aren't out to get you. Trust, but verify.

You might not be able to put absolute blind trust in anybody. I certainly can't. However, one can hedge one's bets, and diversify trust. Build social circles of people with good character, good judgement, and calm temperments - and statistics will start working for you. It's unlikely they'll all conspire to betray you simultaniously, especially if you've ensured betrayal costs much and gains little. While petty and jealous people can indeed be irrational enough to betray under such circumstances, it'll be harder for them to create the kind of conspiracy necessary for mass betrayal that might cause significant enough damage to warrant proper paranoia. You might still have to watch out for gaslighters stealing credit (document your work!) and framing people (document your character!) and other such dishonest and manipulative behavior... but if everyone's looking out for the same thing, well, that's just everyone looking out for everyone else! That's a community looking out for each other, and holding everyone honest and accountable. Most find comfort in that, rather than the stress paranoia implies.

Put yourself in a room full of manipulators and schemers, on the other hand, and "parnoia about everyone" might be the only reasonable or rational response!

[−] __MatrixMan__ 32d ago
You could expect such a thing in a world where consent was currency, rather than scarcity.
[−] tyrust 32d ago

> precise alignment with me personally, or even with my own business

Seems like a strawman, I don't think anyone means this when talking about alignment.

More general goals, like avoiding paperclip maximization, are broadly applicable to humanity.