No, what they should do instead is decentralize energy generation to the point that we're in cockroach mode. And if that means that transportation of goods gets priority over transportation of people then so be it until we've figured that one out.
The sooner we get this over with the better. Install as much solar and wind as we can and get to the point where we have a glut and then back the up with decentralized storage.
Get decentralized to the point that no single point of failure will result in wholesale outages: resilient as cockroaches. You can't do that if you have interconnects that have to work for society to work. The centralized electrical grid was a great idea and it got us very far. But it is just too fragile. Much better if you can have many (millions) of points of generation, storage and consumption and a far more opportunistic level of interconnect.
decentralized to the point that no single point of failure will result in wholesale outages
This is a good goal. But it needs to be more rigorously defined. Autarky can be done. But then you need to accept North Korean living standards.
> Much better if you can have many (millions) of points of generation, storage and consumption and a far more opportunistic level of interconnect
Again, to a degree. You can't decentrally power a modern city. So that means either no more cities, which is expensive, or ruinously-expensive power in cities, which again, in practice, means de-industrialisation.
> This is a good goal. But it needs to be more rigorously defined. Autarky can be done. But then you need to accept North Korean living standards.
I'm not sure that's a diss you think it is. They still live better than most societies did at the beginning of the 20th century.
And their current standard of living would also be lifted if not for economic sanctions. The reality is that North Korea is generally a very resource poor geographic location, which ultimately limits your development without trade.
> But then you need to accept North Korean living standards.
I'm not sure that's true.
> Again, to a degree. You can't decentrally power a modern city.
I'm not sure that that is true either, but it will take a lot more work than to do this for less densely populated areas. In general I'm not sure if 'modern cities' are long term sustainable.
To be clear, I'm not either. But decentralisation requires sacrificing economies of scale. And total autarky is a proven failure. Between that and complete integration is probably a more-independent equilibrium for Europe. But it will require paying a price.
> In general I'm not sure if 'modern cities' are long term sustainable
Sure. Maybe. Until then, the economies that field them will call the shots. (Based on everything I've read, cities are far more sustainable than dispersed living.)
I don't doubt that it requires paying a price. The only relevant question is whether that price is substantially lower or substantially higher than continuing on our current track. I'm open to be convinced that it is higher but I strongly believe that it is lower because with increased fragility you're playing the dice and one day they'll come up in a way that hurts you. The more people there will be in those baskets that harder it will hurt.
As for the future of cities: the internet has given us one thing: independence from having to go to cities to work. Combine that with the ridiculous energy expense on commuting and it seems like a complete no-brainer that we should just stop doing that. COVID has already shown us that this is far more possible than we ever thought it was.
> It's higher than prevailing prices. And it gets higher the more autarkic and decentralised the system needs to be.
I don't actually think that that is true. If I look at the cost / KWh + the network costs + various subsidies you can probably supply a house for a lifetime if you the energy consumption costs for that same lifetime and spent them up front on decentralized generation + storage.
It's all about the density, not so much about the cost and as the density goes up so do the complications and the costs. But if you have enough ground (which really isn't all that much) it is perfectly doable today, and probably you'll be in the black in a surprisingly low number of years. The higher the cost of oil the higher the cost of gas, and the higher the cost of gas the higher the cost per KWh (this may vary depending on where you live).
> How much extra are your citizens willing to pay every year to reduce supply disruptions?
That's a very good question. Probably not much until it starts to happen regularly, so I would expect that problem to solve itself over time. Energy has been a hot topic for the last decade and with every price shock it is getting easier to convince people that if they had more autonomy they would be less affected. Solar + heatpumps have exploded in Europe in the last decade and that trend has not stopped, in spite of a reduction in net metering. Ironically, the biggest stumbling blocks are the governments that want to tax energy but see no way of doing this if it is generated and consumed on the spot.
With centralized electrical generation, you get massive economies of scale. It would be very costly to duplicate generation when you can extend lines from a current grid so cheaply. The efficiency of large power plants also results in a reduced carbon footprint. Duplication would be paying much more for a decentralized grids, while producing less electricity from inputs at higher cost.
By "Europe asks" the article means someone wrote a white paper [1].
Europe's energy strategy–together with Russian and American military adventurism and Chinese economic nationalism–probably puts it into a recession this year. I have a lot of respect for the aims of the European project. But as currently structured, I see no mechanism by which hard decisions can be made.
To restart a nuclear power plant, you must go through every planned maintenance activity that was cancelled or not done in the mothballed time frame, you have to inspect every pipe, every pump, every valve, test every breaker, snubber, and emergency diesel until every single device is satisfactory. On top of that cyber security regulations rolled out between 2003-2018 world wide for nuclear you would also have to do a mountain of paperwork to either confirm with NEI 08-09, the EPRI TAM or equivalent. You will likely have to upgrade your digital infrastructure entirely to get to that point as well.
You would also have to hire in seasoned employees in operations, maintenance, chemistry, health physics, engineering, licensing, procurement, and security.
Going from a barebones security staff guarding a long term storage yard to one protecting a full nuclear power plant would also take time.
It would be 3 to 5 years to accomplish everything if money was not an issue.
All of this spend is on top of no electrical generation. And what parts were sold to other plants that now need replacements.
So every industry that supports those parts and manufacturing would also have to spin up more resources. Economically there would be positive effects.
The reason the American plants are restarting is a lot of private capital, a lot of government money and a willing regulator. 2 billion usd is a steal compared to 25 to build a new one.
Ontario Canada is planning on spending $400 Billion on a nuclear plant. And that's before the inevitable cost overruns. The government is running ads touting that they're doing it to stay competitive.
Having the most expensive energy in the entire world is not the way to be competitive. Especially when next door to Quebec with its cheap hydro power.
Maybe Europe will take the "most expensive energy in the world" title away from Ontario. Europe's LNG energy infrastructure is expensive, but new build nuclear is even more expensive.
It was dumb to ever let the nuclear industry and deployment stagnate. That said, I think what Trump is doing, by stacking the NRC with his cronies and quickly approving new reactor designs from companies his friends/family are invested in, is more dangerous than Europe doing nothing.
Nuclear is the answer to our infinite appetite for energy. For the long term, nuclear will be part of the solution.
With that said, there is no such thing as an energy shock right now. Instead, Europe has allies who blatantly attacked a sovereign nation. The answer to that is to condemn and sanction the instigators. What are laws for if they can selectively applied? This is a political problem.
I've been saying exactly this since around 09. Glad to see the rest of Europe is finally catching up.
Yes we should turn to renewables as much as possible, but we should replace fossil powerplants first, and then nuclear.
I'm honestly not sure if 100% renewables is even in the cards for Europe. It's located further north than you probably think [1], which means less sun. Wind is a better fit than solar in the north, but in Sweden we do occasionally get entire weeks with almost no wind, and effectively 0 sun. Hydro is a good alternative for Sweden, and one that is built out extensively.a good thing about hydro is that you can control how much energy it produces to fit demand(ie, produce less energy on windy days). You can't really do that with nuclear.
The entire energy situation in the north is super complex. In the winter any energy source will be profitable, as energy prices skyrocket, sometimes as much as SEK 3/kWh. In the summer however you might end up paying to produce, as energy prices go negative.
The problem with solar panels and arctic seasons is that you get periods with high energy demand alternating with periods of high energy production. And the periods are way too long to bridge with batteries (~3 months).
The extensive solar buildout in Sweden means free energy in the summer, which means a lot of energy production is gonna be a loss leader for around 3-4 months.
And then extreme power shortages where you can charge premium prices during 3-4 winter months, with a brief period of sanity and approximate balance in between
It's a very weird situation, and we're definitely building a sustainable power grid in "hard mode".
On top of that Sweden actually exports energy to Germany, because they decided nuclear power was scary.
A nuclear base production would be my first choice, and then balance primarily wind and hydro for the majority of the remainder. Solar panels are kind of wasted in the north, but a godsend in continental Europe. Ideally Sweden would invest German solar fields, or just cut them off from our already strained grid during the winter months(serves them right for shutting down all their nuclear for no reason, fucking idiots)
> Nuclear development is a long-term project, not a short-term fix to current energy insecurity.
Long answer? Still no. Flamanville [1] took 15 years (1o over estimate) and the cost was five times what was projected. Hinkley Point-C [2] is first projected to come online in 2030 (18 years after commencement) and the costs will at least double. Both are mentioned in the article.
The amortized cost of nuclear power makes it among the most expensive forms of electricity generation. And they take forever to build. Not a single nuclear power plants (of the ~700 built in the world) has been built without significant government contributions. And they won't get cheaper. SMR (also mentioned in the article) doesn't make sense. Nuclear plants are better when they're bigger. SMR is just another way of extracting money from the government for dead end research.
Europe as a whole has a history of colonialism. This is the basic for European social democracies: offshorting their problems and costs onto the Global South. They've taken the same approach with energy. In the 2010s, Europe outsourced its energy security to Russia and that has had obvious conseequences for Ukraine.
This was actually an incredibly rare W for the first Trump administration: in 2018 the administration warned Europe of the dangers of Russian gas and badgered Germany into building an LNG port with the Trump-Juncker agreement [3]. This was both correct and fortuitous after Europe suddenly needed to import a lot of LNG from 2022.
Europe also outsources its security to the United States and that's partly why they're in this mess now. Europe is suffering for providing material aid to a war of choice in Iran that they didn't consent to or otherwise want. The article mentions the issue of finding money for defence spending to meet US demands. That's money primarily for US defense contractors. You think that might be an issue?
Renewables, particularly wind and solar, are the path forward. As is divorcing itself from being a US vassal state.
A lot of Europe's policies come down to the failed austerity policies after 2008. Taxing wealth and barring profit shifting to low-tax jurisdictions is the path forward here, not strangling ever-decreasing social safety nets. Austerity is corporate welfare for banks.
All the smart people said fossil fuels bad and renewables were the answer. Now not so much? Nuke is good but why not try lighter regulation, less central planning, and less trying to be smarter than the market and science. Stifling energy innovation and flexibility with central planning is never going to get efficient clean and sufficient energy to support a healthy growing economy that leads to growing standard of living for all.
108 comments
The sooner we get this over with the better. Install as much solar and wind as we can and get to the point where we have a glut and then back the up with decentralized storage.
>
cockroach modeWhat does this mean?
>
decentralized to the point that no single point of failure will result in wholesale outagesThis is a good goal. But it needs to be more rigorously defined. Autarky can be done. But then you need to accept North Korean living standards.
> Much better if you can have many (millions) of points of generation, storage and consumption and a far more opportunistic level of interconnect
Again, to a degree. You can't decentrally power a modern city. So that means either no more cities, which is expensive, or ruinously-expensive power in cities, which again, in practice, means de-industrialisation.
> This is a good goal. But it needs to be more rigorously defined. Autarky can be done. But then you need to accept North Korean living standards.
I'm not sure that's a diss you think it is. They still live better than most societies did at the beginning of the 20th century.
And their current standard of living would also be lifted if not for economic sanctions. The reality is that North Korea is generally a very resource poor geographic location, which ultimately limits your development without trade.
> But then you need to accept North Korean living standards.
I'm not sure that's true.
> Again, to a degree. You can't decentrally power a modern city.
I'm not sure that that is true either, but it will take a lot more work than to do this for less densely populated areas. In general I'm not sure if 'modern cities' are long term sustainable.
>
not sure that's trueTo be clear, I'm not either. But decentralisation requires sacrificing economies of scale. And total autarky is a proven failure. Between that and complete integration is probably a more-independent equilibrium for Europe. But it will require paying a price.
> In general I'm not sure if 'modern cities' are long term sustainable
Sure. Maybe. Until then, the economies that field them will call the shots. (Based on everything I've read, cities are far more sustainable than dispersed living.)
> But it will require paying a price.
I don't doubt that it requires paying a price. The only relevant question is whether that price is substantially lower or substantially higher than continuing on our current track. I'm open to be convinced that it is higher but I strongly believe that it is lower because with increased fragility you're playing the dice and one day they'll come up in a way that hurts you. The more people there will be in those baskets that harder it will hurt.
As for the future of cities: the internet has given us one thing: independence from having to go to cities to work. Combine that with the ridiculous energy expense on commuting and it seems like a complete no-brainer that we should just stop doing that. COVID has already shown us that this is far more possible than we ever thought it was.
>
relevant question is whether that price is substantially lower or substantially higher than continuing on our current trackIt's higher than prevailing prices. And it gets higher the more autarkic and decentralised the system needs to be.
> with increased fragility you're playing the dice and one day they'll come up in a way that hurts you
Agree. It looks like insurance pricing. How much extra are your citizens willing to pay every year to reduce supply disruptions?
> It's higher than prevailing prices. And it gets higher the more autarkic and decentralised the system needs to be.
I don't actually think that that is true. If I look at the cost / KWh + the network costs + various subsidies you can probably supply a house for a lifetime if you the energy consumption costs for that same lifetime and spent them up front on decentralized generation + storage.
It's all about the density, not so much about the cost and as the density goes up so do the complications and the costs. But if you have enough ground (which really isn't all that much) it is perfectly doable today, and probably you'll be in the black in a surprisingly low number of years. The higher the cost of oil the higher the cost of gas, and the higher the cost of gas the higher the cost per KWh (this may vary depending on where you live).
> How much extra are your citizens willing to pay every year to reduce supply disruptions?
That's a very good question. Probably not much until it starts to happen regularly, so I would expect that problem to solve itself over time. Energy has been a hot topic for the last decade and with every price shock it is getting easier to convince people that if they had more autonomy they would be less affected. Solar + heatpumps have exploded in Europe in the last decade and that trend has not stopped, in spite of a reduction in net metering. Ironically, the biggest stumbling blocks are the governments that want to tax energy but see no way of doing this if it is generated and consumed on the spot.
The only problem is that we have to convince the centralized power industries to give up their complete control of our local and global economies.
I have been thinking about this for decades, as the path forward has been obvious for that long. Those in control just keep doubling down.
It appears that they would rather destroy our ecosystems, and risk economic collapse, instead of just adjusting their investment strategies.
https://h2roadtrip.com/mr-hydrogen-sweden-lives-almost-a-dec...
Rather extreme, but technically possible!
Europe's energy strategy–together with Russian and American military adventurism and Chinese economic nationalism–probably puts it into a recession this year. I have a lot of respect for the aims of the European project. But as currently structured, I see no mechanism by which hard decisions can be made.
[1] https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A...
All of this spend is on top of no electrical generation. And what parts were sold to other plants that now need replacements. So every industry that supports those parts and manufacturing would also have to spin up more resources. Economically there would be positive effects.
The reason the American plants are restarting is a lot of private capital, a lot of government money and a willing regulator. 2 billion usd is a steal compared to 25 to build a new one.
Having the most expensive energy in the entire world is not the way to be competitive. Especially when next door to Quebec with its cheap hydro power.
Maybe Europe will take the "most expensive energy in the world" title away from Ontario. Europe's LNG energy infrastructure is expensive, but new build nuclear is even more expensive.
Those are where immediate price volatility occurs and quickly compounds.
With that said, there is no such thing as an energy shock right now. Instead, Europe has allies who blatantly attacked a sovereign nation. The answer to that is to condemn and sanction the instigators. What are laws for if they can selectively applied? This is a political problem.
Yes we should turn to renewables as much as possible, but we should replace fossil powerplants first, and then nuclear.
I'm honestly not sure if 100% renewables is even in the cards for Europe. It's located further north than you probably think [1], which means less sun. Wind is a better fit than solar in the north, but in Sweden we do occasionally get entire weeks with almost no wind, and effectively 0 sun. Hydro is a good alternative for Sweden, and one that is built out extensively.a good thing about hydro is that you can control how much energy it produces to fit demand(ie, produce less energy on windy days). You can't really do that with nuclear.
The entire energy situation in the north is super complex. In the winter any energy source will be profitable, as energy prices skyrocket, sometimes as much as SEK 3/kWh. In the summer however you might end up paying to produce, as energy prices go negative.
The problem with solar panels and arctic seasons is that you get periods with high energy demand alternating with periods of high energy production. And the periods are way too long to bridge with batteries (~3 months).
The extensive solar buildout in Sweden means free energy in the summer, which means a lot of energy production is gonna be a loss leader for around 3-4 months.
And then extreme power shortages where you can charge premium prices during 3-4 winter months, with a brief period of sanity and approximate balance in between
It's a very weird situation, and we're definitely building a sustainable power grid in "hard mode".
On top of that Sweden actually exports energy to Germany, because they decided nuclear power was scary.
A nuclear base production would be my first choice, and then balance primarily wind and hydro for the majority of the remainder. Solar panels are kind of wasted in the north, but a godsend in continental Europe. Ideally Sweden would invest German solar fields, or just cut them off from our already strained grid during the winter months(serves them right for shutting down all their nuclear for no reason, fucking idiots)
[1]https://youtube.com/shorts/C7-t_Ya6gI4?si=3EnxpFce59-VZb8B
> Nuclear development is a long-term project, not a short-term fix to current energy insecurity.
Long answer? Still no. Flamanville [1] took 15 years (1o over estimate) and the cost was five times what was projected. Hinkley Point-C [2] is first projected to come online in 2030 (18 years after commencement) and the costs will at least double. Both are mentioned in the article.
The amortized cost of nuclear power makes it among the most expensive forms of electricity generation. And they take forever to build. Not a single nuclear power plants (of the ~700 built in the world) has been built without significant government contributions. And they won't get cheaper. SMR (also mentioned in the article) doesn't make sense. Nuclear plants are better when they're bigger. SMR is just another way of extracting money from the government for dead end research.
Europe as a whole has a history of colonialism. This is the basic for European social democracies: offshorting their problems and costs onto the Global South. They've taken the same approach with energy. In the 2010s, Europe outsourced its energy security to Russia and that has had obvious conseequences for Ukraine.
This was actually an incredibly rare W for the first Trump administration: in 2018 the administration warned Europe of the dangers of Russian gas and badgered Germany into building an LNG port with the Trump-Juncker agreement [3]. This was both correct and fortuitous after Europe suddenly needed to import a lot of LNG from 2022.
Europe also outsources its security to the United States and that's partly why they're in this mess now. Europe is suffering for providing material aid to a war of choice in Iran that they didn't consent to or otherwise want. The article mentions the issue of finding money for defence spending to meet US demands. That's money primarily for US defense contractors. You think that might be an issue?
Renewables, particularly wind and solar, are the path forward. As is divorcing itself from being a US vassal state.
A lot of Europe's policies come down to the failed austerity policies after 2008. Taxing wealth and barring profit shifting to low-tax jurisdictions is the path forward here, not strangling ever-decreasing social safety nets. Austerity is corporate welfare for banks.
[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flamanville_Nuclear_Power_Plan...
[2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hinkley_Point_C_nuclear_power_...
[3]: https://www.csis.org/analysis/us-lng-europe-after-trump-junc...